Does Michael Vick Start For Eagles In 2013?

Leave a reply

Prognosticators believe Chip Kelly’s spread offense from Oregon won’t work in the NFL. The spread offense will be mixed in with the west coast scheme in Philadelphia.  Pat Shurmur was added as offensive coordinator to assist Kelly in his transition to the NFL. Kelly will certainly run the ball more than Andy Reid. One of the major criticisms of Reid was that he didn’t run the ball enough.

The offensive line play was the major downfall of the 2012 Eagles. The rushing attack suffered as a result.  The Eagles were 13th in the NFL in rushing with 1,874 yards and 10 TD along with 37 fumbles. LeSean McCoy missed 4 games last season and only rushed for 2 TD. Shady ran for 17 scores in 2011. Bryce Brown burst onto the scene with a 178 yard 2 TD performance vs. the Panthers and a 169 yard 2 TD performance against the Cowboys. Brown also struggled to hold onto the ball fumbling 4 times.

Vick also suffered from insufficient offensive line play. Even legendary O-line coach Howard Mudd couldn’t coach up the cast of characters the Eagles had along the line last season. The Eagles finished the season with 4 offensive linemen on IR. Many others missed time along the way last season. Vick took a beating in part to the make-shift lines. Theoretically if Kelly, Shumur, and O-line coach Jeff Stoutland can fix the offensive line, veteran skill position players should be able to return to glory.

Kelly wants his QB to get rid of the ball fast which isn’t Michael Vick’s strong suit. Accuracy and decision making are also very important in Kelly’s offense. Unfortunately those are aspects of the game Vick has struggled with during his NFL career. What Vick brings to the table is escapability and arm strength. Vick is better off being able to use his physical skills to make plays. Vick is a double edge sword because for as many plays as he makes with his athleticism, it also leads to turnovers. Vick has fumbled 10 or more times in each of the last 3 seasons. His inconsistency puts a lot of pressure on the defense to keep the team in games.

Nick Foles decision making was questionable at times last season, but he did complete 60.8 % of his passes. Foles threw 6 TD and 5 INT in 7 games. Foles had a pair of 300 yard games vs. the Bucs (381 yards) and Redskins (345 yards). Don’t put too much stock into those performances as the Bucs ranked 32nd and the Redskins 30th in pass defense last season. Foles has more physical talents than Matt Barkley. I’m surprised the Chiefs didn’t acquire Foles instead of Alex Smith.

Matt Barkley would have been a high 1st round pick if he came out of college as a junior. Returning to USC cost Barkley a lot of money on his rookie contract. Barkley makes good decisions with the football and is accurate on shorter routes. Time will tell if his perceived lack of athleticism and arm strength will limit his NFL ceiling.  The Eagles traded up in the 4th rd to get Barkley so they must have seen enough that they liked.  Barkley’s decision making may be the best out of the trio. This could be a red-shirt year for Barkley to get accustomed to the speed of the NFL.

How Kelly adapts his system to the NFL will be one of the more intriguing stories this season. I believe Michael Vick will be the starter this season because he gives the Eagles the best chance to win games. Kelly and Shurmur are going to have to figure out a way to maximize Vick’s talents and limit or live with the potential damage. My belief is Vick will have to fall on his face to lose the job in training camp. Fantasy owners should look to take Vick as a QB2 with upside. Dynasty league owners should pay attention to the camp battle to figure out which young QB to take a flier on this season.

Time To Sell High On Carlos Gomez?

Leave a reply

Carlos Gomez is the leading hitter on the Senior Circuit with a .373 batting avg.  Gomez is a career .253 hitter in 7 major league seasons. Gomez was given a three-year extension after a season featuring career highs in batting avg. 260, ding-dongs(19) and stolen bases (37).  The hot start shouldn’t come as a complete surprise as it seemed Gomez started to figure things out late last summer. In June the bottom fell out as Gomez batted .188. July was the beginning of the turnaround with a .274 avg, followed by .260 in August, and .275 in Sept/Oct.  From July thru the rest of the season Gomez hit 15 of his 19 ding-dongs. His Isolated Power from jumped for .177 in 2011 up to .202 in 2012. So far the ISO is .275 this season.

Gomez career slash rates are .253/.300/.393 while this season its .373/.423/.647.I believe Carlos Gomez has turned the corner a bit and figured some things out at age 27. BABIP is a stat I hold in very high regard in trying to figure out if a player is getting lucky or can sustain a level of production. However his BABIP so far this season is .416 while his career number is .303.  Gomez will probably regress back closer to his career track record at some point this season. Fantasy owners should use last season’s numbers as a baseline if they want to hold onto Gomez. Players with home run potential in the teens and steals potential in the 30’s shouldn’t come too cheap.  If trade offers come in for more proven commodities, fantasy owners should strongly consider selling high on Gomez.

Jose Valverde Coming To Motown Soon

Leave a reply

Fantasy owners can connect the dots to figure out which players to pick up off waivers. The fact that the Tigers signed Jose Valverde to a minor-league contract around the time Bruce Rondon was sent to the minors tells you all you need to know about their bullpen.  Valverde should have immediately been added to your watch list.  The Tigers don’t trust their other options to close out the 9th on a full-time basis. Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, and Drew Smyly have each recorded a save for the Tigers. Jim Leyland has mentioned Benoit seeing a majority of the save opportunities but also talked about mixing and matching.

Valverde lost the closers role during the 2012 playoffs. The Tigers let Valverde leave in part for his failures in the postseason. A career 9.64 ERA in the ALDS, 14.40 ERA in ALCS, and 54.00 ERA in World Series. This job was Bruce Rondon’s to lose in spring training unfortunately his lack of control was the problem. Rondon will probably get another shot to close in 2014. The young hurler could work his way up to the parent club. I figured this could be a problem for Rondon, so I handcuffed Benoit late in the draft as well.

The question the Tigers want answered in the minors is Valverde’s stuff good enough to still get outs in the 9th?  I believe it’s just a matter of time before Papa Grande takes over the closer’s job in Motown. Valverde has 277 career saves including 35 last year. Fantasy owners in AL-Only leagues should already have Valverde rostered. Deeper mixed league owners also should take a chance on Valverde early. I picked up Valverde last week for a $1. I’d rather grab a guy a little early, than a little late. When Valverde gets called up the waiver bid could have cost exponentially more. The closer’s job in Detroit has yielded high production for fantasy owners in recent years. I recommend owners to take the plunge on Valverde or be prepared to strike soon.

Ubaldo Jimenez worth the wait and see approach

Leave a reply

You don’t want to consistently fish memories. Just because you caught a monster northern pike or trophy walleye in that spot doesn’t mean there’s more coming. Sometimes it’s just a matter of lightning striking in a bottle. Fantasy owners should look at players the same way. Ubaldo Jimenez helped win me a fantasy baseball league championship on the final day of the 2008 season. Jimenez won 19 games in 2010, but hasn’t been the same pitcher since. His mechanics have frequently gone awry the last few seasons along with diminished velocity. How much the diminished velocity comes from bad mechanics remains to be seen.  Jimenez is owned in 13% of Yahoo and 12.1% of ESPN leagues.  His velocity was up to 95 mph vs. the Blue Jays, while last season the average fastball velocity was 92.5 mph. The SO/9 last year fell off to 7.3 from 8.6 in 2011. The BB/9 went up from 3.7 to 4.8.

Often times the physical skills of the player don’t tend to erode at the age of 27. Jimenez is only 29 and has made 31 or more starts in each season since 2008.  The potential for high strikeout totals could be there with increased fastball velocity. His contract has a team option of $8 million dollar for 2014 with a $1 million dollar buyout.  The Tribe would probably get peppered with offers if Jimenez is able to correct his market value.  Maybe I’m fishing a memory by adding Jimenez to Fall Guy Stuntman Association. The waiver move only cost $1 making the potential risk-reward too enticing to pass up this early in the season.

Fantasy Owners Rejoice Trade Of Thomas Robinson

Leave a reply

Opportunity has knocked for Thomas Robinson with a trade from the dysfunctional Kings to the playoff contending Rockets. Robinson goes from averaging 15.9 MPG with the Kings to a possible 25-30 MPG gig with the Rockets.  There’s not much competition for PT in Houston at this point.  Patrick Patterson was averaging 25.9 MPG and Marcus Morris saw 21.4 MPG this season in Houston.  They are now in Sacramento and Phoenix. Royce White is out of shape in the D-League while Chandler Parsons, Francisco Garcia and Carlos Delfino could take away minutes if the Rockets decide to go with smaller lineups.

Robinson was averaging 4.8 PPG and 4.7 RPG so far this season. His per 36 minutes rates are 11.0 PPG with 10.6 RPG.  The number 5 overall pick of the 2012 draft inexplicably couldn’t find a role in the Kings rotation.  I thought Robinson would make a significant impact right away due to his NBA type body, skill set, and high level of college competition.  The more experienced Jason Thompson takes up most of the minutes at power forward in Sacramento.  However, Thompson can be inconsistent and I believe doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as Robinson. What the Kings are trying to do at this point is anyone’s guess. I was confused why Robinson couldn’t play more in Sacramento, but the move to ship him out after half a season is a head scratcher.  Saving a bit of money shouldn’t supersede putting out a competitive team.

The Kansas product lacks a consistent mid-range jumper and polished post moves.  Playing with James Harden should help to elevate his offensive game around the basket.  His ability to defend bigs in the pick and roll will certainly help Kevin McHale’s squad.  Rockets GM Daryl Morey has added another solid move to his resume.  Fantasy owners looking to add a solid move to their resume should race to waivers and pick up Robinson.

Avoiding Josh Hamilton in Fantasy Drafts

Leave a reply

I play in multiple fantasy baseball leagues and have never owned Josh Hamilton.  There’s a strong chance I never will. The power numbers should make the case for owning Hamilton a slam dunk with over 25 hr and 90 RBI 4 out of the last 5 years.  2010 saw Hamilton win a batting title to the tune of a .359 avg. and an AL MVP Award.  His offensive wins above replacement player for 2010 was 7.3.  That total dropped down to 3.3 in 2011.  In 2012 Hamilton hit 43 ding-dongs with 128 RBI and .285 avg. with a 4.4  offensive wins above replacement player.  The first half of 2012 was ridiculous with 27 ding-dongs and 75 RBI.

I still won’t draft Josh Hamilton in any of my fantasy baseball drafts this year. Hamilton’s previous drug use is at the center of my logic. Fear of Hamilton relapsing isn’t part of my thought process. The fact of the matter is Hamilton has missed too many games for my liking. Here’s his career breakdown of games played each season along with the malady of injuries suffered.

2007 90 games 2 DL stints Gastroenteritis/sprained right wrist.

2008 156 games knee inflammation/hand contusion/tooth abscess/foot contusion

2009 89 games 2 DL stints strained rib muscle/sports hernia

2010 133 games knee/hamstring/fractured ribs

2011 121 games DL fractured right humerus/offseason sports hernia surgery

2012 148 games groin/back stiffness/ocular keratitis

In my opinion Hamilton will turn 32 in May, but is what I describe as an old 32.  There’s a lot of unknown wear and tear on his body. How much of these injuries is a result of the previous drug usage we will never know. I wouldn’t bank on Hamilton making it thru the season without missing some time.  Playing him some at DH would be a way to help with the wear and tear, but Hamilton is only a career .245 hitter in 212 AB (240 PA) as a DH.  His career numbers at Angel Stadium are a .260 avg and 5 ding-dongs with 19 RBI in 150 AB (166 PA).  The dramatic weight loss this winter is attributed to eating better and cutting down his caffeine intake.  At the end of the 2012 campaign, the caffeine problem led to ocular keratitis which is a condition that dries the cornea from too much caffeine consumption.

Hamilton is certainly one of the most physically gifted players in the game today. With his inability to stay healthy possibly coming to the forefront with age, I recommend fantasy owners to stay away from Josh Hamilton. There are too many good hitters out there to spend an early pick or big auction money on a player with such a significant injury history.  My guess is there’s a segment of Rangers management and the Rangers fan base that is glad Hamilton is on someone else’s roster. Once the injuries start you’ll be happy Hamilton is on someone else’s roster too.

 

The Time Is Now For Michael Beasley

Leave a reply

Midway thru his 5th NBA season, Michael Beasley’s career has been a disappointment so far. Beasley hasn’t developed into a franchise building block for Suns while previously flaming out with the Wolves, and Heat. Year 1 in Phoenix hasn’t gone well as Beasley is averaging just 10.8 PPG while starting only 20 of 47 games played this year. Shooting 40.3% from the floor and 33% from downtown isn’t going to lead to more playing time. His offensive win share so far this season is at -1.5. The Player Efficiency Rating so far this campaign is at 11.6, while the league average is 15. The biggest knock on his game is that in each season of his NBA career Beasley has more turnovers than assists. Thru his first 5 seasons Kevin Durant also had more turnovers than assists each season.  Beasley and Durant are childhood friends that coming out of college were viewed to be similar type players.  Their NBA careers are at opposite ends of the spectrum.  Beasley’s career Win Share is at 9.3 while Durant checks in at 62.8.

Beasley’s game hasn’t rounded out to help in other areas. He doesn’t defend, rebound, or get other players involved in the offense. Beasley’s scoring doesn’t come from within the confines of the team’s offense. Chucking up a bunch of shots will eventually buildup into points. His statistics are empty and don’t translate to winning basketball. The losses shouldn’t completely lie at Beasley’s feet, but he certainly hasn’t helped matters. A career offensive win share of 0.8 for a scorer speaks volumes.

The Suns are in last place in the Pacific Division at 17-34 and 19th in the NBA in scoring at just 95.4 points per game. The Suns are 22nd in the NBA giving up 100.2 points per game. Fewer fans are watching in Phoenix as well as they’re 25th out of 30 in attendance. Head coach Alvin Gentry was put out of his misery and Lindsey Hunter has taken over. In the 10 games since Hunter took over, Beasley has averaged 16.1 PPG shot 47.2 % from the floor and averaged 25.3 MPG.

The fact of the matter is this; Phoenix should be playing for more ping-pong balls this summer.  It’s crystal clear there’s a lack of talent on this current Suns roster. The locker room may also be one of the messiest in the Association.  This current construction of the Suns roster may not be together after the trade deadline and certainly not next season.  Whatever problems exist in the locker room is irrelevant at this point as the team should be in sell/tank/develop mode.

Marcin Gortat has no interest in signing an extension. Luis Scola is a serviceable player that could round out a contender’s bench. Jared Dudley and Shannon Brown maybe could help out on a contender’s bench.  Jermaine O’Neal has nothing left in the tank and just serves as a vocal presence. Goran Dragic is the closest thing they have to a building block. Markieff Morris is a talented project that has a long long way to go.  The long term prospects of Kendall Marshall, P.J. Tucker, Luke Zeller, Wesley Johnson, and Diante Garrett remain to be seen. Beasley is under contract thru the 2014-15, however the last year isn’t fully guaranteed.  Since Beasley will be with the club for the near future, why not give him an extended run. There are 2 good things that can happen if Beasley plays more minutes. The Suns will get to fully see if Beasley will ever develop into a building block. The Suns may lose more games increasing their ping-pong ball total in the hopper.

Fantasy owners should monitor this situation closely as more minutes leads to more potential for opportunity. Beasley did average 19.2 PPG for the Wolves in 2010-11 while playing a career high 32.3 MPG. That Wolves team did also finish 17-65.  Keep in mind the NBA team’s records don’t matter for fantasy owners. Whether the production is empty by NBA standards also doesn’t matter. Points are points no matter how you slice it in the fantasy game.

Fantasy Owners Should Hold Onto Derrick Favors

Leave a reply

I am a frustrated Derrick Favors fantasy owner.  Favors is averaging 8.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 1.5 BPG in 21.5 mpg. The Per 36 minutes stat lines of 14.6 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 2.5 BPG have fantasy owners anxiously waiting for the Jazz to open up a starting spot for Favors.

The NBA Trade Deadline is Thursday February 21st.  The Utah Jazz are a team that’s not good enough to contend for a championship, but not bad enough to win the lottery.  The Jazz are just a middle of the pack team. The acquisitions of Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors in recent years set the clock on moving on from Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap.  The veteran bigs have contracts that expire at the end of this season. Jefferson and Millsap are still very productive players with tread remaining on the tires. Jefferson averages 17.4 PPG and 9.4 RPG with a 4.2 win share so far this season. Millsap checks in at 14.9 PPG and 7.7 RPG with a 4.2 win share.  Mo Williams is out indefinitely with thumb surgery and also has an expiring contract.  The Jazz lack of talent in the backcourt is glaring.

Gordon Hayward hasn’t justified the first round selection. Hayward has improved his scoring to 13.7 PPG, but is only averaging 2.3 APG playing with established post players.  Alec Burks scoring ability in college also hasn’t translated to the association with just 13.4 mpg this year. Kevin Murphy has just been recalled from the Reno Bighorns of the NBA D League.  In 14 games with the Bighorns, Murphy averaged 13.2 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 28.6 minutes.  Randy Foye is a decent backup combo guard that shoots 43% from downtown this year, but isn’t someone to build around.  The fact that Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are rostered speaks volumes about the Jazz backcourt.

Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey has 2 veteran post players in their prime with expiring contracts at his disposal to move at the deadline. 2 young raw post players are waiting in the wings. Favors and Kanter won’t develop with limited playing time. The Jazz have the pieces in Jefferson and Millsap to be able to acquire young franchise lifting guards or draft choices. Eric Bledsoe of the Clippers is the epitome of what Jazz should look to acquire in return.

Fantasy owners should look to hold off cutting or trading away Favors until the deadline passes. If you’ve been able to hold onto Favors this long why not see it thru? I would be surprised if the Jazz don’t open up playing time for Favors at the trade deadline.

Could Brewers Move Mat Gamel for Bud Norris or Jeff Niemann?

Leave a reply

The Brewers plan for Mat Gamel entering the 2013 season is to use him in a utility role as a corner infielder/outfielder. The plan in 2012 for Gamel was to replace Prince Fielder at first base until an ACL tear prematurely ended his season. Corey Hart’s diminished range in the outfield and his 6’6” frame are a perfect match at first base. Hart is in the last year of his deal at $10 million in 2013 before free agency. If the Brewers were looking to reload now would be the time to move Hart, but this is a club going for it again in 2013. The first baseman of the future had an award winning 2012.  Hunter Morris won the Southern League MVP and the Robin Yount Performance Award as the Brewers Minor League Player of the Year.

Gamel is yet again a man without a position and not part of the Brewers plans. I believe Gamel can be a solid 5 or 6-hole major league hitter. In 7 minor league seasons, Gamel has a slash rate of .304/.376/.498.  It’s tough to judge Gamel because he’s only had 269 major league plate appearances in 5 seasons.

The Brewers starting pitching is Yovani Gallardo followed by a slew of young pitchers. Ryan Dempster signed with the Red Sox and Edwin Jackson’s price may be too high.  The Brewers won’t break the bank on the free agent market to sign starting pitching.  Going with a rotation full of young pitchers doesn’t make sense for a cub in win now mode.  The Brewers won’t look to move their high-ceiling prospects to improve the pitching staff, so that leaves Gamel as the logical tradable asset.  There are a few American League clubs that could use a stick the caliber of Gamel and could send the Brewers a starting pitcher in return.

The Astros move to the American League West is going to difficult in 2013. Houston doesn’t nearly have enough offensive firepower to matchup with the Angels, A’s, and Rangers. The Astros have a lot of holes to fill in as organizational top prospects grow up in the minors. Jonathan Singleton is viewed as the first baseman of the future, but is a ways away. Instead of going after an old broken down Lance Berkman, why not move Bud Norris for a package of young players. I’m not sure what the asking price is for Norris, but Gamel and a lower level pitcher could make it happen. I’d be surprised if Astros would be able to command a king’s ransom for Norris.  The earliest Norris can become a free agent is 2016. His career record of 28-37 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.402 WHIP doesn’t stand out as a top of the rotation starter. The career 8.8 SO/9 is often sabotaged by the 3.8 BB/9.

The Rays are another potential trade partner for the Brewers. Jeff Niemann is coming off a nightmare 2012 due to a broken fibula and shoulder problem. This 6’9” righty owns a career 40-26 record with a 4.08 ERA and 1.286 WHIP.  His career SO/9 sits at 6.8.  The metrics should improve a bit if Niemann were to move from the AL East to the NL Central. Niemann has pitched well against the Rays top rivals. The veteran righty owns a career 7-2 record vs. the Yankees and Red Sox in 13 starts.  Niemann is eligible to become a free agent in 2015. The Rays offensive team rankings in the AL weren’t very good in 2012. (11th in runs, 11th in RBI, 12th in avg., 11th in SLG%)  Evan Longoria’s extended DL stint definitely played a part in the clubs low offensive rankings.

The Rays have a surplus of high-end young arms in the farm system. Major League ready power on the other hand is in shortage. Its possible Will Myers may need a little more seasoning.  Gamel could provide an offensive upgrade a DH over Ryan Roberts and possibly James Loney at 1B. Loney’s calling card is defense at this stage of his career. Gamel isn’t a defensive wizard by any stretch of the imagination, but could provide power.

I believe these are 2 reasonable trade possibilities for the Brewers to explore. Matching a young pitching staff with a win now offense doesn’t seem to make much sense. If the Brewers are going all in for the 2013 season then the starting rotation needs an upgrade.  There’s still plenty of time for the Brewers to make moves this offseason.

Ed Davis Becomes A Must-Own Player

Leave a reply
Fantasy basketball owners should rush out to pick up Raptors PF/C Ed Davis before it’s too late. Davis is a young player that’s gone thru the growing pains in 3,136 career minutes entering this season. The Andrea Bargnani elbow injury should open up minutes for this 3rd year player. There’s a real chance Davis could force the issue for more minutes permanently with a good showing. This former Tar Heel could make those rumored Bargnani trades a reality. The overall numbers right now don’t stand out for fantasy owners to take the plunge.
The stats Davis is accruing right now in 17.2 minutes per game of 7.0 PPG and 5.8 RPG don’t jump out to fantasy owners as a must own player.   I value the 36 minutes per game analysis in trying to access if a bench player is worth picking up. It gives me a ballpark of what a player could possibly do with more playing time.  The field goal attempts average of 4.8 so far this season is low, but per 36 minutes the number is 10.0 FGA. Davis per 36 minutes would average 14.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 1.3 SPG. The 57% FG% will help owners in category or rotisserie leagues.
The jury is out on Amir Johnson at this point of his career. Johnson is a backup big that will provide a solid FG%. Jonas Valanciunas should also see an uptick in minutes while Bargnani is out. This Lithuanian big man is a future building block for the Raptors, but is already owned in most fantasy leagues.  As the Raptors sit in the basement of the Atlantic Division, Dwane Casey’s job should be to find out which players can contribute to rebuilding the Raptors. Trying to win games to save a job isn’t going to help turn the franchise around. Hopefully the front office shares the same sentiments.