Is Glennon a Building Block or Stop Gap?

The Chicago Bears 3-year deal $45 million dollar deal with Quarterback Mike Glennon was one of eye opening signings in free agency. $19 million of the deal is guaranteed making it easier from the Bears to move on from Glennon after one season. Astoundingly this is near the going rate for starting QB’s. The Bears reportedly plan to draft a Quarterback this year as well.

Moving on from Jay Cutler was one of the top priorities this offseason. Cutler’s 8 years with the team had run its course. My belief is Cutler wouldn’t have played another down for the Bears in 2016 if Brian Hoyer didn’t get injured to miss the remainder of the season. The Bears QB comedy carousel got better as the 49ers signed Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley in free agency.

Glennon gets the opportunity to run an offense with a rebuilding unit. Kevin White hasn’t proven to stay healthy in his NFL career. Cameron Meredith showed flashes last season. Markus Wheaton couldn’t break thru in a talented receiving corps in Pittsburgh, but gets his shot in the Windy City. Kendall Wright put up numbers in Tennessee a few years ago, but was passed over with the current regime.

Glennon’s skill set was on display in 2013 and 2014 in Tampa. The Bucs got the 1st overall pick in 2015 and drafted Jameis Winston to lead their offense. One interesting tidbit that came out is the Bucs offered Glennon $8 million dollars to return as the backup.

His biggest asset to the Bears could be what he offers in the locker room. The Bears signed Glennon in what amounts to a one-year deal to be a stopgap QB. How early of a draft choice the Bears spend on a QB will provide a lot of insight in how the organization views Glennon long term. After a 6-10 season followed by a 3-13 season, GM Ryan Pace and company may need to squeeze out more wins while rebuilding to save their jobs.

Week 4 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Cubs OF Jason Heyward

1.035 OPS in last 7 days. His average for the year is up to .297.  Owners that got burned last year should take notice. This season Heyward is hitting .324 away from the Friendly Confines. Career numbers in Pittsburgh and in Boston (on a smaller scale) support having Heyward in your lineups this week. Heyward is available in over 65% for leagues.

White Sox OF Avisail Garcia

Matchups are home vs. the Royals this week and a road series with the Tigers. I really like the matchups this week as the Sox Face 3 LHP this week, along with SP Jordan Zimmerman, who appears to have completely lost it this season.  Garcia has a 1.455 OPS vs. Left-Handed Starters so far this season. The .136 avg in the last 7 days shouldn’t deter owners from using Garcia this week. Available in over 30% of leagues.

Yankees SP/RP Luis Severino

2 starts this week vs. the Red Sox on Tuesday in Boston and Sunday home matchup with the Orioles. 27 K 2 BB so far this season in 3 starts. The 0.800 WHIP is unsustainable, but Severino may have turned the corner this season. Its worth finding out if he has.  Severino is available in roughly 45% of leagues.

Draft Recap 12-team Daily Categories

 

1. (9) Manny Machado (Bal – 3B,SS)
2. (16) Francisco Lindor (Cle – SS)
3. (33) Freddie Freeman (Atl – 1B)
4. (40) Rougned Odor (Tex – 2B)
5. (57) Christian Yelich (Mia – OF)
6. (64) Wil Myers (SD – 1B,OF)
7. (81) Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
8. (88) Cole Hamels (Tex – SP)
9. (105) Willson Contreras (ChC – C,OF)
10. (112) Danny Duffy (KC – SP,RP)
11. (129) Addison Russell (ChC – SS)
12. (136) Jake Odorizzi (TB – SP)
13. (153) Francisco Rodríguez (Det – RP)
14. (160) David Robertson (CWS – RP)
15. (177) Sean Manaea (Oak – SP)
16. (184) José Peraza (Cin – 2B,SS,OF)
17. (201) Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD – SP)
18. (208) Matt Moore (SF – SP)
19. (225) Sonny Gray (Oak – SP)
20. (232) Héctor Rondón (ChC – RP)
21. (249) Brandon Drury (Ari – 2B,3B,OF)

Draft Recap 12-team Keeper League

FALL GUY STUNTMAN ASOC.
1 Miguel Cabrera, Det 1B  K $39
13 Robinson Cano, Sea 2B  K $35
25 Adam Jones, Bal OF  K $24
37 Roberto Osuna, Tor RP  K $2
49 Michael Fulmer, Det SP  K $2
108 Yoenis Cespedes, NYM OF $13
115 Addison Russell, ChC SS $14
146 Ryon Healy, Oak 3B $2
148 Zack Greinke, Ari SP $9
153 Mike Napoli, Tex 1B $6
173 Jake Odorizzi, TB SP $5
175 Tanner Roark, Wsh SP $8
213 Aledmys Diaz, StL SS $5
223 Evan Gattis, Hou C $5
237 Jose Peraza, Cin SS $6
241 Brandon Drury, Ari 3B $3
242 Hunter Pence, SF OF $2
252 Jason Heyward, ChC OF $1
262 Vince Velasquez, Phi SP $3
263 Koda Glover, Wsh RP $1
270 Greg Holland, Col RP $8
273 Dylan Bundy, Bal SP $1
281 Daniel Hudson, Pit RP $1
289 Jharel Cotton, Oak SP $1
297 Pablo Sandoval, Bos 3B $1
302 Tyler Glasnow, Pit SP $1
307 Fernando Rodney, Ari RP $1

American League Fliers

Orioles Kevin Gausman  Breakout in 2nd half is worth reaching for a bit in upcoming drafts.

Red Sox 3B Pablo Sandoval  Resumed switch hitting, and looks to be in better shape coming into 2017. Kung fu panda will never be confused with Billy Blanks in terms of physical fitness. Young enough that it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he bounces back.

White Sox OF Avisail Garcia  Having a good spring so far, should pencil in as White Sox everyday RF. Post hype sleeper could be a late round lottery ticket.

Indians SP Carlos Carrasco This past season, he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 150/34 K/BB ratio across 146 1/3 innings (25 starts). If he can stay healthy, he offers fantasy upside galore.

Tigers OF Justin Upton  Tied a career high 31 ding dongs despite down year. 5 straight seasons of declining OBP’s with last years bottoming out at .310 OBP. Upton should slide in drafts but not too far. He’s still young enough to adjust.

Astros 3B/1B Yulieski Gurriel  Cuban hitter got his feet wet last season with Astros. Move to 1B full time gives him dual position eligibility. Solid all around hitter.

Royals OF Jorge Soler  25 yr old was never able to put it together in Chicago. A change of scenery and regular playing time could be just what the doctor ordered. Kaufman stadium may run on Soler Power at times this season.

Angels 2B Danny Espinosa  20 plus bombs with 2B/SS eligibility makes Espinosa worth a late pick for those looking for power.

Twins 1B Joe Mauer  Production at this stage doesn’t match the contract as Mauer is one of the most overpaid players in all of baseball. However that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. A .363 OBP can be used by all fantasy owners.

Yankees DH Matt Holliday  With OF/1B eligibility Batman will hold more value due to his multiple position eligibility. The plan is for Holliday to serve as the Yankees DH. The time off the field may help Holliday to stay fresh for a full season.

Athletics SP Jharel Cotton  Pitched well late last season after coming over in trade from the Dodgers. Cotton has the stuff to pitch anywhere, but pitching half of his games in Oakland is an added bonus.

Mariners SP Felix Hernandez  Stock is sliding with fantasy owners as his velocity goes down. King Felix knows how to pitch and while maybe no longer a 1st rd pick at some point will be a value pick.

Rays SP Jake Odorizzi  Peripherals last season were terrific, pitched well enough to certainly win more games. On a good club would have won more than 10 games.

Rangers LF Jurickson Profar  Durability has cut short Profar’s career to date. Multiple position eligibility with the hope that he’s finally health may be worth the risk. Remember Profar is only 24 years old.

Blue Jays SP Francisco Liriano  I believe Liriano bounces back pitching in meaningful games in Toronto. Worth a late pick to fill out your rotation.

National League Fliers

Diamondbacks SP Shelby Miller  I highly doubt Miller repeats his 2016 performance of 3-12. Worth a late flier to fill out rotation.

Braves RP Jim Johnson  Bad Clubs win close games. Johnson signed a 2 yr deal for $10 million dollars should be able to provide cheap saves.

Cubs OF Jason Heyward  Looked like he was swinging a hollow bat last season. Played better in the World Series. Come Back Player of the Year for 2017. You’ll see the production the Cubs expected this year. If Heyward slides too far, go up and pounce.

Reds 2B Jose Peraza  Finally gets to have the 2B job to himself with the Brandon Phillips in Atlanta. Peraza is a late round flier that provides speed.

Rockies RP Greg Holland  Velocity looks to have returned in spring training. Holland was a stud before Tommy John and is young enough to be one again. Could provide cheap saves.

Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig  At 26, its time to shit or get off the pot for Puig. Getting demoted and almost traded is multiple slices of humble pie. If he doesn’t get it now, probably never will.

Marlins OF Marcel Ozuna  23 ding-dongs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Solid choice as an OF 3.

Brewers RP Neftali Feliz  1.14 WHIP last season in 62 games with Pirates. Brew Crew pitchers saved 46 of 69 games last season. Feliz should be a cheap late round flier for those that hold off spending big on Saves.

Mets 3B/SS Jose Reyes  I wouldn’t bet on David Wright leading the club in starts at the hot corner. Reyes with multiple position eligibility will be valuable in daily formats.

Phillies 1B Tommy Joseph  Hit 21 ding dongs last year, possibly hit more in full-time role. Playing everyday should help Joseph provide higher numbers.

Pirates RF Andrew McCutchen  There are a lot of players that would like to have McCutchen’s down season of 2016. Draft slot will slide, but don’t let him fall to far. Never underestimated a pissed off superstar with something to prove.

Padres OF Hunter Renfroe  Should see a lot of at-bats in the heart of the order this season. My pick for Rookie of the Year.

Giants SP Matt Moore  Pitchers park will help Moore keep the ball in the park a bit more. Pitching coach Dave Righetti is one of my favorites. If anyone can get the best out of Moore, it’s Righetti. Making Moore worth the selection.

Cardinals 3B Jedd Gyorko  Hit 30 Bombs last season in a utility role. The OBP was low but Gyorko flashed the power the Padres expected when he was signed to an extension.

Nationals RP Koda Glover Power arm has seen more late inning work this spring. My bet to win the closer’s job in DC.

My Keepers for a 5×5 Categories League

These are my keepers for a 10-team 5×5 daily categories league.  The auction budget is $260 with 23 total roster spots 5 of which are bench spots.  The 7 keepers eat up $122 dollars of budget giving me $ 138 dollars to spend on 16 players. These are the 7 players I’m keeping based off their costs and what I perceive as upside.  WHIP, K, Speed, and Batting Avg are the categories to build around.

($36) for Madison Bumgarner is a little more than I wanted to spend, but I figured his draft cost would be close to that anyways in this league. Bumgarner is the most expensive starting pitcher kept in the league.  Bumgarner has 6 straight seasons of 190 plus K including 251 last season. The career high of 226.2 innings doesn’t both me too much. If I’m going to spend a lot on a pitcher it’s going to be Mad Bum.  ($20) Gerrit Cole is a value in my opinion since I believe he will bounce back this season. I’m willing to gamble that the 2015 Cole with 19 wins, 202 K, and 1.09 WHIP returns.  ($19) Carlos Martinez putting together a Cy Young caliber season is my prediction. At age 25 Martinez should continue to come into his own.  The 1.22 WHIP could drop into the 1.10’s this year.  ($11) Carlos Carrasco had a 9.2 SO/9 and a 1.148 WHIP last season. Carrasco has dominating stuff and pitches for the defending AL Champions. I doubt I could get Carrasco at that price if he was part of the draft.

Hitters I’ve decided to keep are based off value, versatility, and speed.  ($16) JD Martinez would be unrealistic in a redraft scenario at that price. Martinez has been a different player since coming to Detroit. I expect the high OBP and power numbers to continue. ($11) Ian Desmond will provide 1B/OF eligibility while playing in the launching pad that is Colorado. 20 plus steals along with more expected power numbers playing in Colorado is worth the cost. Steals from the 1B position are tough to find.  Only 3 1B eligible players had double digit steals last year. (Goldschmidt 32, Myers 28, Gonzalez 12).  My biggest gamble is ($14) Billy Hamilton. Is the 41-point jump in OBP from 2015 to 2016 a sign of progression? The 2nd half numbers of a .293 avg and .369 OBP have me willing to gamble that Hamilton may have turned the corner.

The keeper costs are too expensive for ($27) Wade Davis, ($25) Craig Kimbrel, ($24) Adam Wainwright, ($20) Zach Britton, ($20) Mark Melancon, (12) Marcus Stroman, and ($9) Tony Watson.  Hitters I’ve deemed too expensive are ($26) Jonathan Lucroy, ($24) Todd Frazier, ($16) Evan Longoria, ($16) Adrian Gonzalez, ($16) Jason Kipnis, ($14) Byron Buxton, ($6) Brad Miller.

Since I can’t attend this draft due to work, I’ve instructed my friend on which players to target.  My rotation features younger power arms with high strikeout rates and low WHIP’s. My strategy this year is to watch my team WHIP like a hawk.  Kyle Hendricks will be a priority add to this roster.  A late auction flier will be Jharel Cotton. The league as a whole didn’t keep too many closers so filling out the bullpen is possible without going nuts on costs.

Pairing Starling Marte with Hamilton would give me 2 elite speed options. Dee Gordon is another elite speed option to pair with Hamilton if Marte’s cost is ridiculous. Odubel Herrera will be a fall back option depending on costs.  Doubling down on elite speed is important. All of the big name power hitters were put back into the player pool due to high keeper costs. Filling out the roster with power hitters and multiple position eligibility is the goal.  Feel free to comment on my keepers or lack there of.