Monthly Archives: June 2013

Owners Should Hold Onto Hamels

Cole Hamels 2-11 record with a 4.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP is not what fantasy owners expected this season. The ERA and WHIP are well below his career averages of 3.53 and 1.150. Hamels has given up 4 or more runs in 6 of his 17 starts in 2013. 6 of the 11 losses have come in games in which Hamels has given up 3 earned runs or less. The metrics don’t scream out that Hamels is a pitcher in a steep decline. The BB/9 this season is up to 2.8 from a career average of 2.3 while the SO/9 is at 8.4 with the career mark at 8.5.

Other aspects of the team sport can have an impact on a starting pitchers win-loss record. The Phillies at the time of this post are 19th of 30 clubs in runs scored. Their offense is only batting .250 with runners in scoring position and .240 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. The Phillies are 6th in run support avg. at 0.20 according to ESPN, but Hamels hasn’t been the beneficiary. Hamels lost all 6 of his starts in the month of May, while 4 of the 6 were quality starts. The Phillies team batting avg. in May was just .240. Surprisingly the Phillies went 14-14 in the month.

The Phillies bullpen has the second highest ERA in all of baseball at 4.56. The game logs show the bullpen hasn’t contributed much to Hamels 2-11 record so far this season. Most of his losses are Hamels having a quality start and leaving behind in close games. I’m kicking myself right now for giving away Homer Bailey and AJ Pierzynski to acquire Hamels on May 4th. On my roster Hamels is 1-8 with 3 no-decisions. I recently turned down an offer of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Heyward for Shane Victorino and Hamels.

This has just been a weird season so far for Hamels and the Phillies. Fantasy owners should resist the overtures to sell Hamels for cents on the dollar. Hamels is pitching decent enough that a market correction could take place.