Monthly Archives: July 2018

Random Fantasy Football Musings

Highest Overdrafted QB

Falcons QB Matt Ryan

The 2016 MVP was a bust in 2017. 11 games last season with 1 or 0 TD passes last season.  How is that possible with Julio Jones?!? WR Calvin Ridley may be able to help alleviate some of the coverage that gets rolled to Julio.  Its sounds ludicrous to say a passer with 7 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons is overdrafted. I view him closer as a Top 15 QB to a Top 10.

 

Running Back Least Likely To Repeat 2017 Performance

Browns RB Duke Johnson

Finished as a top 12 PPR RB in 2017.  74 catches and 7 combined TD. The Browns passing attack will be much improved in 2018 with the switch from DeShon Kizer to Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield.  The receiving corps has talent with Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, Antonio Callaway, Corey Coleman, and David Njoku. The rushing attack was addressed in free agency (Carlos Hyde) and the draft (Nick Chubb).  I see Duke Johnson being the 3rd down back, but will lose a lot of targets/touches due to upgraded talent all around him.

 

Biggest Breakout Wide Receiver

Titans WR Corey Davis

I hope to draft Davis in every league this season.  Played in 11 games with just 34 receptions as a rookie.  Ankle Surgery and a hamstring injury limited Davis in training camp.  Then a Hamstring injury in Week 2 cost him 5 full games. Rookie receivers with a full offseason program and training camp can have a tough time adjusting to the NFL.  No surprise Davis looked lost after missing so much work in training camp and the early season. I’m buying the 2 TD performance vs. the Patriots in the playoffs.

 

Tight End Least Likely to Repeat 2017 Performance

Colts TE Jack Doyle

HIghly unlikely to catch 80 balls again.  (See Brandon Myers 2012)  Those numbers are a direct result of Jacoby Brissett playing QB last season.  Andrew Luck will drive the ball down the field and throw outside the numbers much more than Brissett.  T.Y. Hilton should be a big bounce back candidate. Eric Ebron I believe will also cut into Doyle’s workload.  

 

Defense that will come out of nowhere to be fantasy relevant

Cleveland Browns

Last season the offense killed the defense with turnovers. The defense metrics are skewed a bit due to having to play with a short field too much.  The offense should be improved and won’t kill the defense in 2018. Cleveland has amassed a collection of young talent that could take a step forward this season.  Myles Garrett was impressive as a rookie. The linebacking corps with Joe Schobert, Jamie Collins, and Christian Kirksey is solid. Denzel Ward and EJ Gaines should help to improve the secondary.  Start of the season looks tough with the opener vs. the Steelers followed by a road matchup with the Saints. Don’t be surprised if they put up good showings in these games.

Week 17 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Athletics 3B Matt Chapman

.462/.548/.1038 slash rate the last 7 days. Faces the Blue Jays and Tigers for 3 games each at home this week. Jays and Tigers in the bottom 3rd of baseball in home runs allowed and opponents road batting average this season.  Chapman is owned in 49.4% of ESPN and 47% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Royals OF Rosell Herrera

.333 avg since the All-Star break. Royals may take a look and see what they have in Herrera.  AL-Only option or DFS play, but maybe develops into more. Owned 0.2% of ESPN and 0% of Yahoo leagues.  6 games on the road this week 3 and 3 with the White Sox and Twins.

 

Rockies SP Jon Gray

2 road starts this week vs. the Cardinals and Brewers.  14.1 IP and 3 walks since returning from demotion to Triple-A.  Owned in 54.3% of ESPN and 58% of Yahoo leagues. Matchups are tough, but Gray has the stuff to go against anyone.  Trusting it has seemed to be his problem.

Week 16 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Cubs OF Jason Heyward

4 home games with the Diamondbacks followed by 3 on the road with the Cardinals. .321/.404/.449 slash rate the last 28 days.  Career averages vs. Diamondbacks and Cardinals .213/.231 aren’t in Heyward’s favor, but I’d ride this hot streak. Owned in 39.4% of ESPN and 28% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Rays 2B/OF Joey Wendle

.343./.400/.567 slash rate over the last 28 days. The Rays are competitive, but could be in sell mode at the deadline. Wendle can help daily fantasy players with his multiple position eligibility.  Owned in 11.5% of ESPN and 6% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Mets RP/SP Robert Gsellman

Expected to take over the closer’s role with Familia traded to Oakland.  Gsellman is owned in 18.1% of ESPN and 29% of Yahoo leagues. The Mets are terrible and should let this 24-yr-old pitcher see what he can do. Owners that ride the closer carousel may want to make a claim for Gsellman.  I own him in 2 of 4 leagues.

Week 15 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Braves SS/3B Johan Camargo

.371 OBP over the last 28 days.  Has scored a run in 4 out of his last 6 games.  8 games this scoring period 2 at home with the Blue Jays and 3 vs. the Diamondbacks  followed by 3 on the road against the Nationals.   The eventual arrival of Austin Riley may have been postponed with a knee injury.  Riley is rehabbing in rookie league ball and will eventually return to AAA.  Strikeouts are still high for the 21-year-old prospect.  Camargo’s production may be able to keep Riley in the minors for the time being.  Camargo can help daily players looking for OBP and low K.  Owned in 18.5% of ESPN and 23% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Reds OF Jesse Winkler

I would consider Winkler in a DFS play for his .391 OBP. His playing time isn’t consistent enough to merit weekly locking leagues as of yet.  Owned in 14.8% of ESPN and 16% of Yahoo leagues.  Could carve out more of a role as the 2nd half approaches, but fantasy players need to be selective when to deploy Winkler at this stage.  Has 3 games on the road vs. the Indians,  3 on the road with the Cardinals, and 3 home against the Pirates.

 

Tigers SP Jordan Zimmerman

Faces the Rays in Tampa on Wednesday.   Has been a huge free agent disappointment due to injuries.  Since  returning from the DL, Zimmerman has a 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 25 innings. 24:1 K:BB ratio not too shabby either. ESPN ownership is 18.2% while 23% in Yahoo leagues.  Worth the pickup for this matchup and to see if he can keep it going.

Situations To Track In Training Camp

I spend all offseason researching players, situations, and teams in preparation for my drafts. I put together my mid to late round targets then pay attention in training camp and preseason games.  These are a few of the players and situations I’ll pay attention to this summer to finalize the back end of my draft strategery.

Chicago Bears 2nd Yr RB Tarik Cohen

How new Head Coach Matt Nagy plans to utilize Cohen is one of the most interesting storylines I’ll follow in training camp. The previous regime seemed unwilling to use Cohen in a larger role. The reality is a 5-6 181 lb running back isn’t going to be able to handle a between the tackles pounding. PPR scoring has Cohen ranked much higher than in Standard. Trey Burton and Anthony Miller could take away looks form Cohen. In a PPR format could have sneaky middle to late round value.  

 

Dallas Cowboys Rookie WR Michael Gallup and 5th Yr WR Allen Hurns

Replacing Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will be a major storyline entering the 2018 season in Dallas.  Gallup had 21 TD in 2 years at Colorado State. This 3rd rd pick could be stepping into a sizable role out of the gate. Higher value in Dynasty formats than seasonal formats.  Hurns signed to a 2-yr deal after getting released from the Jaguars. Hurns caught 10 TD in 2015, but wasn’t able to replicate that production. The 2015 campaign came as an outside receiver, while Hurns spent more time in the slot last season.  Hurns should be able to play outside in Dallas and provide a bounce-back campaign in 2018. If I had to draft today in a seasonal league my choice would be Hurns over Gallup.

 

Indianapolis Colts RB’s  2nd YR Marlon Mack, Rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins

Mack couldn’t take away the job from Frank Gore in 2017.  Mack had some great runs, but also got stuffed behind the line too much. Mack did play with a torn labrum in his shoulder.  Hines played some slot receiver at NC State. Hines in a PPR format could pop up for some big plays this season.  Wilkins is a bigger back out of Ole Miss that is solid in pass protection. To me this is a battle of Wilkins vs. Mack for the starting job with Hines coming in as a change of pace back.  Robert Turbin is out 4-games due to suspension and serves a complimentary role. This training camp battle is one I’ll keep tabs on. If I drafted today, Wilkins would be my choice.

 

Los Angeles Chargers 2nd Yr WR Mike Williams

Caught 11 balls in 10 games last season coming off a back injury that forced him to miss training camp.  The Chargers didn’t draft Williams 7th overall to have him play behind Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin.  TE Hunter Henry is out for the upcoming season with an ACL tear.  Keenan Allen won’t catch 200 balls a season so someone else will be fantasy relevant in the Chargers offense. I’ll be watching to see if Mike Williams is that player that scored 11 TD in his final season at Clemson.  Could fly up draft boards if healthy.

 

Miami Dolphins Rookie RB Kalen Ballage

As I mentioned in a previous post (Hugh Hefner Approach to RB) Ballage can be viewed as a handcuff for Kenyan Drake.  After hearing Adam Gase comments thru minicamp about Ballage, my viewpoint has changed. I wasn’t planning on going up for Kenyan Drake in drafts, but I now may pass on him.  Ballage is one of my main training camp track targets.

 

New York Jets WR’s3rd Yr Robbie Anderson, 5th Yr Quincy Enunwa,  7th Yr Terrelle Pryor, 7th Yr Jermaine Kearse.

Enunwa led the Jets in receiving yards in 2016 and Anderson in 2017.  Enunwa missed 2017 due to neck injury. Anderson is a speedster that caught 7 TD last season.  Pryor has made an admirable transition from QB to WR, but fell flat in Washington last season. An ankle injury was to blame, but I’m not so sure there wasn’t something else.  If drafting today I’d take Anderson over the field. Enunwa would be my 2nd choice if healthy. Pryor would need a great camp to get on my radar. Kearse is a better NFL player than fantasy player.        

 

Seattle Seahawks 4th Yr WR Tyler Lockett

Lower Body injuries have derailed Lockett’s NFL career.  The player that had 11 TD in his JR and SR years at Kansas State hasn’t shown up in Seattle.  Paul Richardson left in free agency for the Redskins. Brandon Marshall was brought in on a cheap deal.  Lockett is a late round gamble at this stage. I own him in a dynasty league and will be paying close attention to how things go in camp. If the showing isn’t promising, Lockett may be off my roster at draft time.

Week 14 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Reds 2B Jose Peraza

5 steals and .367 OBP in the last 14 days.  Takes on the White Sox at home for 3, then on the road for 3 vs. the Cubs. DFS players may want to take note Peraza, owns a career .450 batting avg. in 20 AB against Sunday starter Jon Lester.  Owned in 48.9% of ESPN and 56% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Cubs OF Jason Heyward

Will never be able to live up to the contract, but is still a very good baseball player. .375 OBP in the last 28 days. Owned in 19.7% of ESPN and 15% of Yahoo leagues. I picked him up in a weekly league in search of outfield production. Home all week with 2 games vs. the Tigers and 3 against the Reds.

 

White Sox OF Avisail Garcia

Owned in 13.8% of ESPN and 24% of Yahoo leagues. 9-game hitting streak since coming off the DL.  The White Sox in rebuild mode have every incentive to build up Garcia’s trade value. Garcia can be a free agent in 2020 which could net the Sox more in trade because he’s not just a rental.  Fantasy players should ride the hot streak with Avisail and be prepared for him to change uniforms. I drafted him cheap and stashed on a DL spot.

 

Rays SP Nathan Eovaldi

2-road starts this week on Monday vs. the Marlins and Sunday against the Mets.  Owned in 11.5% of ESPN and 18% of Yahoo leagues. These are matchup plays as the Marlins as a team are batting .239 and the Mets slump in at .231.  Going against the 2 worst teams in the National League could be fantasy gold.