Author Archives: alladamburnett

Week 15 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Pirates OF Starling Marte

Returns July 18th from 80-game PED suspension. Marte’s power speed combo should help owners down the stretch run. I was able to snag Marte in 2 of my 5 leagues.  Available in nearly 30% of fantasy baseball leagues.

 

Cubs C/OF Kyle Schwarber

This week Schwarber will blast off. High Team ERA’s vs. Lefties for the Orioles 4.95, Braves 4.48, and Cardinals 4.64) The Cardinals have allowed the 3rd most home runs to left-handed batters with 57. I was able to pick Schwarber up in 1 of my 5 fantasy leagues and quickly rejected a trade offer.  This C/OF is available in 16% of fantasy baseball leagues.

 

Cubs SP Jose Quintana

Moving to a better club in the same city should help Quintana make the adjustment to getting traded. Quintana is available in 14% of leagues and should be a high claim in NL Only leagues.

Why The Jaguars Will Play In Postseason

Fantasy Football is a year-round hobby for me. The coaching/front office changes, free agency, and draft are all telling signs to help formulate my strategery.  I use the OTA’s, minicamps, and training camp to make adjustments to my strategery.  Thru my research for this upcoming season, I believe the Jaguars will make the postseason in 2017.  The accumulation moves made thru drafting and free agency the last few years will finally come to fruition in 2017.

 

I plan to grab the Jaguars defense as a late option this season. Don’t be surprised if the Jaguars unit is a valuable commodity for fantasy owners. Fact: The Jaguars ranked 6th in total defense with 321.7 yards per game allowed in 2016.  Fact: The Jaguars allowed the 5th fewest passing yards per game at 215.2.  Stopping the run and points allowed were their undoing. The unit ranked 19th at 106.4 yards per game on the ground and gave up an average of 25 points- per-game.  A slight case could be made the unit gave up so many points due to being put in compromising positions from their turnover-prone QB Blake Bortles.  The additions this offseason should help shore up their run defense and cut down on points allowed.

 

DC Todd Wash has talent at all three levels of his defense.  The D-line has run stuffer Abry Jones in the middle along with Malik Jackson and Calais Campbell.  Young DE’s Dante Fowler Jr and Yannick Ngakoue provide an awful lot of speed off the edge.  Myles Jack takes over for Paul Posluszny in the middle, with Posluszny playing on the strong side. Weak-side linebacker Telvin Smith is a tackling machine playing that excels in run defense.  The secondary is led by CB’s Jalen Ramsey and free agent signing A.J. Bouye.  Safeties Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson are solid players to round out the back of this defense.  Don’t be afraid to spend a draft choice on the Jaguars defense this season.  IDP owners already are fully aware of Smith, but should reach up for Jack and Ramsey.

 

Offensively Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone want to play more smash mouth football with the drafting of Leonard Fournette and the addition of 3 fullbacks Tommy Bohanan, Marquez Williams, and Tim Cook.  I doubt all 3 fullbacks will make the opening roster, but it shows the position will be a competition in camp.  LT Brandon Albert doesn’t grade out as a great run-blocker, but Cam Robinson should blow open some lanes at Left Guard. In 2016, the Jaguars offensive line ranked middle of the pack in run blocking.  Fournette will not leave the yards on the field that Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon did.  Ezekiel Elliott numbers are unrealistic for Fournette, but he should dominate this backfield and be a Top 10 RB.

 

The receiving corps is solid with Allen Robinson, Marquise Lee, and Allen Hurns. The big question is if Lee can ever stay healthy.   Robinson is WR 2 with upside, while I’d spend a late round flier on Lee over Hurns.  TE Marcedes Lewis probably won’t put up his career-year numbers of 2010, but will be more involved with Julius Thomas gone.  Lewis could be a waiver pickup if this offense uses him as a red zone threat.

 

QB Blake Bortles is the key to how far the Jaguars will go in 2017. Despite the inconsistent play Bortles had 5 games of 300 yards last season. His TD’s dropped from 35-23 with 19 more passing attempts last season.  Bortles worked with Tom House on his mechanics this offseason.  The Jaguars plan to run the ball more this season and take the pressure off of Bortles. 2016 saw the league adjusted to Bortles’ success from 2015.  Bortles will have to adjust back to the league in 2017 or will have to adjust to being a backup.  I view Bortles as a QB2 with upside and plan on targeting him late in drafts.

 

The upgraded front office with Tom Coughlin in charge will help mold the organization’s young talent in the right direction.  I believe the AFC South will feel the Wrath Of Khan in 2017 and see the Jags playing in the postseason for the first time since 2007.

Early Fantasy Football Musings

I believe Jaguars and Titans will make the Playoffs this season.

Jaguars QB Blake Bortles will rebound this season. Improved front office, coaching, worked with Tom House on Mechanics. More offensive balance with improved running game. Will be a QB 2 with upside.

 

Titans QB Marcus Mariota

With improved weapons and development Mariota will be the QB I target as part of my yearly strategy to be the last team to take my 1st QB, but first to have 2. Eric Decker has double digit TD in 3 of last 5 seasons.

 

Ravens WR Jeremy Maclin should be able to excel in the slot for the Ravens. Baltimore has led the NFL in pass attempts each of the last 2 seasons. Maclin may have lost some burst down the field, but should excel in the slot. WR3 with PPR upside.

 

Danny Woodhead will be the back to own in Baltimore this year. With Pitta’s hip injury, Woodhead will pick up the slack in the short passing game. Terrance West isn’t much of a threat in the backfield and Kenneth Dixon wasn’t impressive last year. Dixon also will serve a 4-game suspension to start the season.

 

I view Saints WR Michael Thomas as a top 5 WR in fantasy football. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham JR. Michael Thomas, Jordy Nelson.

 

Saints WR Willie Snead has put up solid numbers in back-to-back years. Thomas will be a stud, but Snead will have his numbers go up as well.

 

Rams WR Robert Woods may be a popular WR5 this season. Tavon Austin is what he is and Cooper Kupp will play in the slot. Woods will lead Rams in receptions this year.

 

49ers QB’s will target Pierre Garcon early and often. PPR players will enjoy rostering Garcon more so than standard scoring players.

 

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett dynamic playmaking ability needs to be used more this season. Coming back of broken Fibula and Tibia is something to track. Lockett is an excellent late rd gamble.

 

Packers TE Martellus Bennett set a career-high with 7 TD last season. I believe he easily sets career-high again this season.

 

I’m very torn on where to rank Ty Montgomery. Improved Pass protection could be his key to getting the most playing time. Right now, I’m leaning towards viewing him as a value pick instead of a player to reach up for in drafts.

 

Viewpoints of Kelvin Benjamin have changed dramatically since he came into the league. Went from great red zone threat and value to overweight bust in the eyes of fantasy owners. Its true Benjamin was out of shape last season; I blame the Panthers offense as a whole for falling off instead of blaming just Benjamin. Here’s his numbers.

2014 73 catches 1008 yards 9 TD.

2016 63 catches 941 yards 7 TD.

Don’t be a scorned Benjamin owner that lets him fall far in this year’s drafts. I believe Benjamin will out perform his draft slot.

 

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey usage is tough to predict. Cam Newton is a runner instead of a check down passer. Switching styles could help Newton stay healthy long term. Would also make McCaffrey much more valuable. The drafting of McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel show a change in offensive philosophy.  Make sure you have solid depth behind McCaffrey if you want to pay the cost to draft him.

 

Browns WR Corey Coleman has had hamstring problems dating back to his freshman year at Baylor. I’m scared to spend a WR-4 pick on him at this point. Coleman unfortunately lacks one crucial ability and that is availability.

 

If I had to choose 1 Patriots RB it would be Mike Gillislee. Had 8 Rushing TD last year. Rex Burkhead will see early down work with Gillislee as well. James White is the pass catching back. Dion Lewis will be a complimentary piece may help in return game.

 

Steelers WR Martavis Bryant has 14 TD in 21 career games played. Coming off a year suspension at age 25, Bryant should still possess elite athleticism. Playing opposite of Antonio Brown, a more mature Bryant should have a field day. I’m using a franchise tag to keep Bryant in my dynasty league.

 

Jets WR Quincy Enunwa may be Captain Garbage Time this season with the Jets expected to be among leagues worst teams.

 

Pay attention to Austin Seferian-Jenkins in training camp. Has cut out alcohol gotten in better shape and this is probably his last shot to have a career. ASJ shouldn’t have to fight for targets in this week receiving corps.

 

Lions RB Ameer Abdullah will be a stand by your man pick for me this season. Abdullah is coming back from Lisfranc surgery last season. With lack of surrounding talent in backfield, I’ll take a mid-to-late gamble on Abdullah one more time.

 

The Vikings backfield looks murky to some, but I’m not fearful of Dalvin Cook getting stuck behind Latavius Murray this season. Murray will be TD dependent again, while Cook should be able to carve out a role in the passing game.  Cook for the round picked will be a better value than Murray this season.

 

Jets RB Matt Forte will get overdrafted based off of name recognition. Bilal Powell is younger and has more burst than Forte at this point. The Jets plan to use a committee at running back this year. Forte sadly could just be a bye week replacement running back at this stage of his career.

 

Bengals RB Joe Mixon will be a top 15 RB this season. Bernard coming off ACL tear and Jeremy Hill is too slow to get more than what is blocked. Go up to get Mixon.

 

Chargers TE Hunter Henry is a top 8 TE in fantasy football. I believe he does serious damage in LA this year. Antonio Gates will play less snaps this year and serve as a compliment to Henry.

 

Chiefs WR Chris Conley will take over for the departed Jeremy Maclin. Has 4.35 speed. Tyreek Hill is the projected Z receiver with Conley taking over the X. Conley is worth a late rd flier.

 

Redskins ILB Zach Brown has an opportunity to take a starting job away from Mason Foster or Will Compton. Buffalo’s run defense stunk last year and Brown was a portion not the entire problem. Could be a LB3 if he wins a starting job.

 

Jaguars ILB Myles Jack is taking over play-calling duties for Paul Posluszny this season. Jack has tremendous upside and should be a target for IDP owners.

 

Dolphins MLB Raekwon McMillan is a player to follow as camps get underway. McMillan was a solid tackler at The Ohio State University. Could be a popular early waiver claim in IDP leagues.

 

Colts ILB Jon Bostic is a player to pay attention to in training camp. Bostic is a former 2nd rd pick that flamed out in Chicago and New England. Colts LB corps is a wide open competition at this point. Sean Spence, Antonio Morrison, Edwin Jackson are also in competition for reps on the inside.

 

Giants MLB B.J. Goodson is another player to track in training camp. The LB corps for the G-Men leaves a lot to be desired. Goodson worked as the starting MLB in OTA’s.

 

Bears SS Quentin Demps was a late bloomer with the Texans. Demps should be able to carry over his production to Chicago due to a lack of play makers around him.

 

I believe Falcons Defense will take a bigger step forward this year based off their young talent gaining experience. Talent will not be impacted negatively by coaching changes. Head Coach Dan Quinn is a defensive guy, draft the Falcons with confidence.

Week 14 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Rockies OF Carlos Gonzalez

Returns from the DL this week to gravy train matchups at home vs. the Reds and White Sox. The Reds have the worst team ERA on the road at 5.92, while the White Sox are a little better at 4.63. Gonzalez is batting just .221 so far this season, but career numbers may show an uptick is on the horizon. Car Go’s career batting average of .311 in July is his highest in any month of the season. I made the waiver claim this past weekend. Car Go is available in roughly 20% of fantasy baseball leagues.

 

Padres OF Manuel Margot

Has returned to the tune of a .435 clip since coming off the DL with a calf injury. I made the claims for Margot in 2 of my 5 leagues because I desperately need to improve my team speed. With 9 stolen bases and 6 times caught so far Margot needs to improve on the base paths. On a club that’s already 20 games out of first-place he may get the chance. Margot is available in roughly 80% of fantasy baseball leagues.

 

Mets SP Steven Matz

2 road starts this week vs. the Nationals on Monday and the Cardinals on Sunday. Matz has abandoned his Slider to save stress on his elbow. Matz may lack a bit of swing and miss stuff without the slider, but is still talented enough to get out hitters. Has gone 6 or more in each of his 4 starts this season. I was able to pick up Matz in 1 of my 5 leagues. The power lefty is available in roughly 20% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Week 13 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Rangers OF Carlos Gomez

Slash rate of .294/.351/.853 in last 14 days. The Rangers have depth on their roster, but with Gomez on a hot streak look for him to not have to surrender at-bats. On the road this week vs. the Indians and White Sox.  Despite low career batting averages in Cleveland (.244) and Chicago (.188) I would recommend rolling with Gomez this week. I picked Gomez off waivers in 2 leagues for this week. Gomez is available in roughly 45% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Nationals OF Michael Taylor

.351/.368/.865 slash rate the last 14 days for the Nationals Center Fielder.  Takes on the Cubs at home and the Cardinals on the road this week. Taylor is available in 90% of fantasy baseball leagues. I’m using him this week in a daily categories league.

Blue Jays SP J.A. Happ

.231 opponent’s batting average in last 14 days. Happ has a 49K/7BB so far this season. Happ has been more consistent in recent starts. Owned in nearly 45% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Week 12 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Cardinals OF Dexter Fowler

1.286 OPS the last 2 weeks of play. Fowler is a streaky hitter that has flourished since moving into the 2 hole in the lineup. This week’s matchups are on the road vs. the Phillies and home vs. the Pirates. Fowler’s career numbers against these clubs validates being in lineups.  Career .877 OPS vs. the Phillies and .804 against the Pirates. I’m planning to ride the hot streak in a weekly league where I’ve had injuries to my Outfield.  Available in close to 40% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Braves 1B/OF Matt Adams

.992 OPS in the last month of play. Adams has flourished with everyday playing time in Atlanta. Home vs. the Giants and Brewers this week. Brewers have a 3.65 ERA vs. Left-Handed hitters this season while the Giants pitchers have a 4.72 ERA. Feel free to deploy Adams this week.  Available in nearly 60% of fantasy baseball leagues.  I picked him up in a daily categories league.

Rays SP Jacob Faria

I picked him up in a keeper league last week and in one of my daily leagues. The Milltown Motorboaters in another one of my leagues were ahead of the curve and made the claim.  Faria was dealing at Triple A in 58 2/3 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 1.125 WHIP 84/22 K/BB. The success has translated to the Show with 3 wins in 3 starts so far. Faria has also struck out 5 or more in each start. Just one start this week against the Orioles on Friday. Available in nearly 30% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Week 11 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Phillies CF Odubel Herrera

.417/.421/.861 slash rate the last 14 days. Herrera is available in roughly 50 percent of fantasy baseball leagues due to the .183 batting average in May.  I was able to pick up Herrera for $1 on a keeper league team. Herrera’s hot streak hopefully will help my struggling squad and provide another potential keeper option for next year.

Rays CF Mallex Smith

.417/.462/.667 slash rate the last 28 days. Smith has 7 steals so far this season. With Kevin Kiermaier out until August with a hip injury only Peter Bourjos stands in the way of Smith getting playing time. Smith was hitting .311 in Triple A this season with 16 steals. The organization is better off seeing what Smith can do. Fantasy owners looking for speed can find Smith available in 92% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Pirates RP Felipe Rivero

2-1,  2 Saves, 37K 0.56 ERA 0.76 WHIP. Rivero is a stronger bet for Saves than Nicasio going forward. Rivero is available in over 75 Percent of fantasy baseball leagues. Fortunately, I was able to grab Rivero off waivers.

Week 10 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Mariners C Mike Zunino

Is it possible the slash rate of .293/.356/.707 down of the farm can be translated to more success in Zunino’s return to the show? Possibly as evidenced by the .286/.316/.571 slash rate the last 14 days since returning from AAA. The 3rd overall pick in the 2012 Draft is a prime example of not bringing up prospects before they are ready. Zunino is still young enough at 26 to have an impactful career. Available in 99% of fantasy baseball leagues, Zunino may be worth a pickup in deeper or AL only leagues. I put in a claim this week in one of my leagues.

Royals 2B Whit Merrifield

.293/.349/.489 slash rate this season. Has been on fire to start the season. Merrifield transformed his body this offseason and is reaping the benefits. Still available in over 85% of fantasy baseball leagues. Added bonus is Merrifield has OF eligibility in some leagues.  I’m a little late to the party, but put in a claim in a league Merrifield is still available.

Athletics SP Sean Manaea

3-1 record and 10.9 SO/9 since returning from the DL. 2 starts this week on Monday at home vs. the Blue Jays and a Saturday road tilt with the Rays.  Available in roughly 50% of fantasy baseball leagues. I drafted Manaea late in a daily categories league.

 

Week 9 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Twins 1B Joe Mauer

.347 avg in 3 dongs in May and a sluggish start in April .225.  Faces Astros SP Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers has given up 18 dongs this season and 17 BB. Mauer owns a career slash rate of .361/.421/.521 in Angels Stadium. Mauer is available in almost 95% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Blue Jays 2B Devon Travis

May flowers for Travis to the tune of a .351/.364/.622 slash rate. Travis is hitting .333 vs. the Bronx Bombers this season. Can be added in nearly 65 percent of fantasy baseball leagues.

Nationals RP Koda Glover

3 saves in his last 4 appearances. The job finally looks to be Glover’s to lose in DC.  Glover has a 7.6 SO/9 this season, however that rate has jumped to 11.6 in the last 14 days. Glover is available in nearly 60 percent of fantasy baseball leagues. I own him in 3 of 5 leagues.

Week 8 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez

Available in over 50% of fantasy baseball leagues. I picked A-Gone up after the injury to Freddie Freeman. Gonzalez has 12 consecutive seasons of 82 or more RBI. Gonzalez is in a slight decline, but still capable of driving in runs. Pick him up before everyone else realizes Gonzalez isn’t finished just yet.

Giants 2B/SS/OF Eduardo Nunez

Batting .400 in the last 7 days with 6 RBI and 2 steals. The Cubs and Braves each have allowed 13 steals this season. Nunez has 11 swipes on the year and should be off to the races on the base paths this week. Nunez is surprisingly available in 20% of fantasy baseball leagues.

Nationals SP Tanner Roark

A pair of home starts this matchup Tuesday against the Mariners and Sunday vs. the Padres. 0-1 with a 10.24 ERA in his last 14 days. I believe Roark rebounds this week.  Opponents batting avg. of .239 at home vs. Roark this season.  San Diego has the lowest team batting avg. in all of baseball at just .219.  Roark is available in nearly 15% of fantasy baseball leagues.