Category Archives: Football

Week 5 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

Redskins QB Alex Smith

Saints have allowed an opponent’s passer rating of 128.7.  I love to go with players coming off their bye week. Smith gets first 300-yard game of the season.

 

Packers RB Aaron Jones

Lions allow 157.8 yards per game on the ground. Projections for Aaron Jones are criminally low. Jones further cements his role in Packers offense this week.

 

Jaguars WR Dede Westbrook

Lining up more in slot this season and paid dividends last week.  Chiefs Slot CB Kendall Fuller has been burned thru 3 contests this season.  Slot receivers vs. the Chiefs could be weekly waiver wire gold.

 

Steelers TE Vance McDonald

Shootout with the Falcons. If you pay attention to the Circle Of Trust, the Falcons defense is one of my targets for receivers due to injuries.

 

Packers K Mason Crosby

Should be busy in Detroit with injuries in receiving corps.

 

Titans Defense

3 or more sacks in 3 of 4 games this season.  Blitz a lot on defense and Josh Allen struggles picking up the blitz. Could be pinball points for Titans in Buffalo.

 

Redskins Safety Montae Nicholson

5 or more total tackles in all games so far. Should be busy with Saints high powered offense.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Bounces back in a big way vs. the Lions. Detroit is a team that is retooling their roster and has holes on defense. Jimmy G won’t throw 3 picks again.

 

Patriots RB Sony Michel

Check Sunday’s injury report. I believe Michel will be unveiled vs. the Jaguars. The Patriots will have to try to run the ball vs. the Jaguars to slow down the pass rush.  Rex Burkhead isn’t healthy and James White is more a pass catching scat back. Worth a roll of the dice in the flex.

 

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett

Doug Baldwin is out with an MCL injury creating more targets for Lockett.  Speed kills and Lockett should be able to blow past the Bears secondary.

 

Giants TE Evan Engram

8 catches and 98 yards combined in both games vs. the Cowboys last season. Don’t put too much weight into Engram’s stats vs. the Jaguars. Will get back on track vs. the Cowboys.

 

49ers K Robbie Gould

Should have plenty of opportunities vs. the Lions.

 

Chargers defense

Will dazzle on the road vs. the Josh Allen led Bills.

 

Colts Weak-Side Linebacker Darius Leonard

9 total tackles last week.  The Redskins will try to run ball and throw check downs presenting Leonard with tackle opportunities.   

Week 1 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

Chargers QB Philip Rivers

Threw 10 interceptions last season with 3 in both games vs. the Chiefs. Lot of changes to the Chiefs defense this season. I anticipate a dazzling performance from Rivers.

 

Redskins RB Chris Thompson

I don’t see Adrian Peterson, Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine or anyone else cutting into Thompson’s passing game workload. Solid PPR Flex this week.

 

Rams WR Robert Woods

A road matchup with the Raiders as the 2nd game on the MNF doubleheader. My commitment to excellence will be to make waiver pickups this season based off who plays the Raiders that week.

 

Bears TE Trey Burton

Will be heavily involved in making the Packers Safeties and Linebackers play out in coverage.

 

Chargers K Caleb Sturgis

Dazzled the coaching staff in winning a camp battle over Roberto Aguayo.  Chargers offense should provide Sturgis with plenty of scoring opportunities.

 

Saints Defense

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs will have to play catch up leading to Sacks and Interceptions.

 

Dolphins MLB Raekwon McMillan

Tore his ACL and missed last season for Dolphins. Struggled in coverage at The Ohio State University, but has opportunity to make plays in Miami.

10-Team Snake PPR Draft

10-Team PPR Snake Draft with the 6th pick. Scoring in this league is slanted towards QB’s with a point for completion. Passing and Receiving TD are worth 4 points, while a Rushing TD is worth 6 points.  This league also has bonus points for long TD’s. Lineup configuration is QB, RB, RB/WR, WR/TE, WR/TE, WR/TE, Def, K. I was surprised to see David Johnson there at 6. Christmas came early with OBJ there in Round 2.  Passed on Travis Kelce and Amari Cooper to get Stefon Diggs. My belief is Diggs is in for a huge year. With QB scoring I had to go up and get Andrew Luck in Round 4. Could have paired Diggs with Kirk Cousins, but in this format I expect Luck to score more points. Taking Luck made me out on Derrick Henry.  Kenyan Drake in the 5th round I feel comfortable at that price.

Chris Hogan and Corey Davis are value picks at that stage of the draft. I targeted 3rd down backs with upside in Chris Thompson and Tarik Cohen. I believe Cohen will be heavily involved in Bears offense this season. Alshon Jeffery in the 8th round I’m willing to wait for him to return.  Patrick Mahomes was a cock block to make sure I had 2 good QB. The 11th Round saw the Jaguars, Rams, and Vikings defense all go right in a row. Took Kerryon Johnson instead of Eagles Defense. That may be one choice I regret. Pivoted to taking the Saints a few rounds later. Sony Michel is a high end lottery ticket at that stage of the draft. New England didn’t draft him to ride pine.  Trey Burton was a homer pick. I don’t have to play a TE in this format, but I love his upside in the Bears offense. Overall pretty pumped about my lineup and depth from this draft.

FALL GUY STUNTMAN ASSC.
6 David Johnson, Ari RB  
15 Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR  
26 Stefon Diggs, Min WR  
35 Andrew Luck, Ind QB  
46 Kenyan Drake, Mia RB  
55 Chris Hogan, NE WR  
66 Corey Davis, Ten WR  
75 Alshon Jeffery*, Phi WR  
86 Chris Thompson, Wsh RB  
95 Patrick Mahomes, KC QB  
106 Kerryon Johnson, Det RB  
115 Tarik Cohen, Chi RB  
126 Saints D/ST D/ST  
135 Sony Michel, NE RB  
146 Trey Burton, Chi TE  
155 Harrison Butker, KC K  

12-team Snake Draft

12-team Snake PPR Draft. 4 Points for Passing TD. Starting Lineup is QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex, Def, and K.  My one regret is waiting too long to take a TE and getting Jack Doyle. I’m doubtful of Doyle replicating his 2017 season.  Sony Michel should have been Trey Burton. I got pissed on missing out on Burton so I doubled back to snag Drew Brees as my 2nd QB. With Cam Newton’s physical style, I wanted an elite 2nd QB.  I missed McCaffrey in my previous drafts and wasn’t going to let it happen again. I passed on Julio Jones to get OBJ. Too tired of inconsistent production from Julio. Thrilled I was able to take Joe Mixon in the 3rd.  7th round passing on Chris Thompson to get Kerryon Johnson is one that could be questioned as well. I sided with Johnson since Lions traded up to draft him. The Hugh Hefner approach of looking for newer younger models was apparent at the end of the draft with DJ Moore, Mike Gesicki, Aaron Jones, and Calvin Ridley.  Depth and potential trade chips fill out the bench. Overall I’m happy with the roster comprised on the Dazzling Dizzler.

 
9 Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR  
16 Christian McCaffrey, Car RB  
33 Joe Mixon, Cin RB  
40 Amari Cooper, Oak WR  
57 Cam Newton, Car QB  
64 JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit WR  
81 Kerryon Johnson, Det RB  
88 Sony Michel, NE RB  
105 Drew Brees, NO QB  
112 Jack Doyle, Ind TE  
129 DJ Moore, Car WR  
136 Mike Gesicki, Mia TE  
153 Aaron Jones, GB RB  
160 Calvin Ridley, Atl WR  
177 Broncos D/ST D/ST  
184 Wil Lutz, NO K  

10-Team PPR Snake Draft

10-team PPR snake draft. Site graded out this team as a C- and will finish as a 2-12 squad.  I got a good laugh out of reading the projections. I believe this team has depth at Wide Receiver, Tight End, Quarterback, and Defense. The Running Backs are young and unproven.  Because Running Backs are the position with the most volatility, I tend to take the Hugh Hefner approach looking for newer younger models. Kerryon Johnson was passed over a few times until finally getting selected. I strongly considered him in a few rounds.  I spent most of the clock deciding between Derrick Henry and Royce Freeman, thankfully ended up getting both.  Aaron Jones and Jordan Wilkins are both upside picks at that stage of the draft. I believe Jones will lead the Packers in rushing this season despite missing the first couple weeks of the season.  Wilkins has looked decent in training camp and Marlon Mack is banged up.

 

I went up to get 2 of the Defenses I like based off league scoring. Defenses often can get pinball type scoring in this league setup.  If I didn’t get Travis Kelce, Trey Burton would have been the player I targeted at Tight End. Mike Gesicki or George Kittle were my backup Tight End targets.  Quarterback I wanted a combo of Carson Wentz or Andrew Luck with Jimmy Garoppolo or Patrick Mahomes.  I feel comfortable with Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Michael Crabtree, and Robert Woods as my top 4 Wide Receivers. Entering the draft I didn’t think this would be my group.  Agholor is sneaky value to me with Alshon Jeffery possibly missing the start of the season.  Agholor is dealing with a lower body injury, but could be ready for the start of the season.  DJ Moore is the one that got away.  I may end up kicking myself for taking the Saints defense instead of Moore.  I do research on Kickers because it’s a spot on my roster. The Vikings traded up to get Carlson in the 5th round during the draft so he was the Kicker I wanted.  Here’s my roster, feel free to leave comments.

FallGuyStuntmanAsoc.

  1. (7) Alvin Kamara (NO – RB)
  2. (14) Davante Adams (GB – WR)
  3. (27) Travis Kelce (KC – TE)
  4. (34) Stefon Diggs (Min – WR)
  5. (47) Derrick Henry (Ten – RB)
  6. (54) Royce Freeman (Den – RB)
  7. (67) Michael Crabtree (Bal – WR)
  8. (74) Carson Wentz (Phi – QB)
  9. (87) Robert Woods (LAR – WR)
  10. (94) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF – QB)
  11. (107) Nelson Agholor (Phi – WR)
  12. (114) Aaron Jones (GB – RB)
  13. (127) Houston (Hou – DEF)
  14. (134) New Orleans (NO – DEF)
  15. (147) Mike Gesicki (Mia – TE)
  16. (154) Jordan Wilkins (Ind – RB)
  17. (167) Daniel Carlson (Min – K)

Random Fantasy Football Musings

Highest Overdrafted QB

Falcons QB Matt Ryan

The 2016 MVP was a bust in 2017. 11 games last season with 1 or 0 TD passes last season.  How is that possible with Julio Jones?!? WR Calvin Ridley may be able to help alleviate some of the coverage that gets rolled to Julio.  Its sounds ludicrous to say a passer with 7 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons is overdrafted. I view him closer as a Top 15 QB to a Top 10.

 

Running Back Least Likely To Repeat 2017 Performance

Browns RB Duke Johnson

Finished as a top 12 PPR RB in 2017.  74 catches and 7 combined TD. The Browns passing attack will be much improved in 2018 with the switch from DeShon Kizer to Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield.  The receiving corps has talent with Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, Antonio Callaway, Corey Coleman, and David Njoku. The rushing attack was addressed in free agency (Carlos Hyde) and the draft (Nick Chubb).  I see Duke Johnson being the 3rd down back, but will lose a lot of targets/touches due to upgraded talent all around him.

 

Biggest Breakout Wide Receiver

Titans WR Corey Davis

I hope to draft Davis in every league this season.  Played in 11 games with just 34 receptions as a rookie.  Ankle Surgery and a hamstring injury limited Davis in training camp.  Then a Hamstring injury in Week 2 cost him 5 full games. Rookie receivers with a full offseason program and training camp can have a tough time adjusting to the NFL.  No surprise Davis looked lost after missing so much work in training camp and the early season. I’m buying the 2 TD performance vs. the Patriots in the playoffs.

 

Tight End Least Likely to Repeat 2017 Performance

Colts TE Jack Doyle

HIghly unlikely to catch 80 balls again.  (See Brandon Myers 2012)  Those numbers are a direct result of Jacoby Brissett playing QB last season.  Andrew Luck will drive the ball down the field and throw outside the numbers much more than Brissett.  T.Y. Hilton should be a big bounce back candidate. Eric Ebron I believe will also cut into Doyle’s workload.  

 

Defense that will come out of nowhere to be fantasy relevant

Cleveland Browns

Last season the offense killed the defense with turnovers. The defense metrics are skewed a bit due to having to play with a short field too much.  The offense should be improved and won’t kill the defense in 2018. Cleveland has amassed a collection of young talent that could take a step forward this season.  Myles Garrett was impressive as a rookie. The linebacking corps with Joe Schobert, Jamie Collins, and Christian Kirksey is solid. Denzel Ward and EJ Gaines should help to improve the secondary.  Start of the season looks tough with the opener vs. the Steelers followed by a road matchup with the Saints. Don’t be surprised if they put up good showings in these games.

Situations To Track In Training Camp

I spend all offseason researching players, situations, and teams in preparation for my drafts. I put together my mid to late round targets then pay attention in training camp and preseason games.  These are a few of the players and situations I’ll pay attention to this summer to finalize the back end of my draft strategery.

Chicago Bears 2nd Yr RB Tarik Cohen

How new Head Coach Matt Nagy plans to utilize Cohen is one of the most interesting storylines I’ll follow in training camp. The previous regime seemed unwilling to use Cohen in a larger role. The reality is a 5-6 181 lb running back isn’t going to be able to handle a between the tackles pounding. PPR scoring has Cohen ranked much higher than in Standard. Trey Burton and Anthony Miller could take away looks form Cohen. In a PPR format could have sneaky middle to late round value.  

 

Dallas Cowboys Rookie WR Michael Gallup and 5th Yr WR Allen Hurns

Replacing Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will be a major storyline entering the 2018 season in Dallas.  Gallup had 21 TD in 2 years at Colorado State. This 3rd rd pick could be stepping into a sizable role out of the gate. Higher value in Dynasty formats than seasonal formats.  Hurns signed to a 2-yr deal after getting released from the Jaguars. Hurns caught 10 TD in 2015, but wasn’t able to replicate that production. The 2015 campaign came as an outside receiver, while Hurns spent more time in the slot last season.  Hurns should be able to play outside in Dallas and provide a bounce-back campaign in 2018. If I had to draft today in a seasonal league my choice would be Hurns over Gallup.

 

Indianapolis Colts RB’s  2nd YR Marlon Mack, Rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins

Mack couldn’t take away the job from Frank Gore in 2017.  Mack had some great runs, but also got stuffed behind the line too much. Mack did play with a torn labrum in his shoulder.  Hines played some slot receiver at NC State. Hines in a PPR format could pop up for some big plays this season.  Wilkins is a bigger back out of Ole Miss that is solid in pass protection. To me this is a battle of Wilkins vs. Mack for the starting job with Hines coming in as a change of pace back.  Robert Turbin is out 4-games due to suspension and serves a complimentary role. This training camp battle is one I’ll keep tabs on. If I drafted today, Wilkins would be my choice.

 

Los Angeles Chargers 2nd Yr WR Mike Williams

Caught 11 balls in 10 games last season coming off a back injury that forced him to miss training camp.  The Chargers didn’t draft Williams 7th overall to have him play behind Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin.  TE Hunter Henry is out for the upcoming season with an ACL tear.  Keenan Allen won’t catch 200 balls a season so someone else will be fantasy relevant in the Chargers offense. I’ll be watching to see if Mike Williams is that player that scored 11 TD in his final season at Clemson.  Could fly up draft boards if healthy.

 

Miami Dolphins Rookie RB Kalen Ballage

As I mentioned in a previous post (Hugh Hefner Approach to RB) Ballage can be viewed as a handcuff for Kenyan Drake.  After hearing Adam Gase comments thru minicamp about Ballage, my viewpoint has changed. I wasn’t planning on going up for Kenyan Drake in drafts, but I now may pass on him.  Ballage is one of my main training camp track targets.

 

New York Jets WR’s3rd Yr Robbie Anderson, 5th Yr Quincy Enunwa,  7th Yr Terrelle Pryor, 7th Yr Jermaine Kearse.

Enunwa led the Jets in receiving yards in 2016 and Anderson in 2017.  Enunwa missed 2017 due to neck injury. Anderson is a speedster that caught 7 TD last season.  Pryor has made an admirable transition from QB to WR, but fell flat in Washington last season. An ankle injury was to blame, but I’m not so sure there wasn’t something else.  If drafting today I’d take Anderson over the field. Enunwa would be my 2nd choice if healthy. Pryor would need a great camp to get on my radar. Kearse is a better NFL player than fantasy player.        

 

Seattle Seahawks 4th Yr WR Tyler Lockett

Lower Body injuries have derailed Lockett’s NFL career.  The player that had 11 TD in his JR and SR years at Kansas State hasn’t shown up in Seattle.  Paul Richardson left in free agency for the Redskins. Brandon Marshall was brought in on a cheap deal.  Lockett is a late round gamble at this stage. I own him in a dynasty league and will be paying close attention to how things go in camp. If the showing isn’t promising, Lockett may be off my roster at draft time.

Tight End Strategery

My plans for TE this season have completely changed with the ACL injury to Chargers TE Hunter Henry.  I planned on drafting him in every league. The situation and draft slot would allow me to select him in the middle rounds and get what I believed to be high-end production. I can’t justify spending a high pick on Gronk due to age and injury concerns.  Since I live in Wisconsin, Jimmy Graham will go earlier than usual. Jordan Reed is always hurt and I can’t take him with a mid-round pick anymore. Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, or Delanie Walker will be my starting TE. I also love Dolphins rookie TE Mike Gesicki in a dynasty format. Rookie TE’s often struggle to make an impact due to adjusting route running and blocking schemes.  Gesicki in a seasonal league is a TE2 with upside. The players listed below are guys I will track in camps to see where to slot them on my draft board.

Bears TE Trey Burton

There are $32 million reasons Burton should be on your radar this season. Burton is projected to play the Travis Kelce role in Matt Nagy’s offense.  Just because Burton is playing the Travis Kelce role in the offense doesn’t mean he’s going to produce like Travis Kelce. I’m a fan of Burton, but will certainly have another solid TE on my roster.  Mitchell Trubisky didn’t seem to be able to read the whole field last season. A Jared Goff type jump in Year 2 is possible. I like Burton more as my TE2, than TE 1.

 

Rams TE Gerald Everett

2nd round pick from South Alabama caught just 16 balls for 2 TD in his rookie season. The Rams have weapons in the receiving crops with Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. Everett offers more size and could emerge as a red zone threat in 2018. I’m targeting him in a dynasty league and as a late round flier in seasonal leagues.

 

49ers TE George Kittle

5th round pick did some damage in Weeks 15 (4-52), 16 (3-42-1), and 17 (4-100). I picked him up late after Hunter Henry was knocked out for the season.  The 49ers with Jimmy G at the helm look to have an emerging offense. Pierre Garcon has never scored more than 6 TD in a season. Marquise Goodwin played well late, but at 179 lbs could struggle in the red zone. I plan to target Kittle in PPR leagues as a TE2.  

 

Cardinals TE Ricky Seals-Jones

Popular waiver wire claim after catching 3-54-2 against the Texans in Week 11.  The following week RSJ dropped 4-72-1 vs. the Jaguars then poof the production was gone.  RSJ is a converted WR from Texas A&M and scored a 27 on the Wonderlic. How much of the workload RSJ, Christian Kirk, and Chad Williams can take is something to track closely in camp.    

 

Lions TE Michael Roberts

Scored 16 TD in his senior season at Toledo.  With Luke Willson and Levine Toilolo as the main competition on the depth chart, Roberts has a chance to carve out a role in the Lions passing attack.  Improvements in blocking will be the key to more playing time.