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Week 6 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston

Owns a career 110.0 passer rating vs. the Falcons.  Falcons and Buccaneers are the 2 worst scoring defenses in the NFL. Shootout in Atlanta.

 

Raiders RB Marshawn Lynch

Faces the Seahawks in London. Seattle is giving up 129.0 yards per game on the ground.

 

Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones

I’m forced to play him in a deep league. Saw more touches than Peyton Barber in Week 4. Tide slowly turning in Jones favor. Good matchup ultimate dart throw.

 

Texans WR Keke Coutee

Texans throw the ball a ton as evidenced by Deshaun Watson’s 4 straight 300 yard games. Coutee has done damage in the slot to the tune of 17 catches for 160 yards combined in last 2 games. Injuries to Bills secondary means Coutee could be busy again this week.

 

Bengals TE CJ Uzomah

Steelers have allowed 99 yards per game to opposing Tight Ends. Blows season high of 3 for 45 out of the water this week.

 

Texans K Ka’imi Fairbairn

3 or more field goals in 3 straight contests.

 

Packers Defense

Home on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers. Ignore the 29 or more points allowed in 3 of 5 games. CJ Beathard has a propensity to turn the ball over.  

 

Bengals Safety Jesse Bates

8 or more total tackles in 3 games this season. Should be busy vs. the Steelers explosive offense.

Week 4 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

Ravens QB Joe Flacco

Road matchup with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed 10 passing TD already this season. Opponents have a 97.2 passer rating.

 

Patriots RB James White

Sony Michel should see more of the rushing work, while White will play more with Rex Burkhead going on IR.  White is a solid PPR flex play.

 

Chargers WR Mike Williams

3 TD in his last 2 games. Proving why he was an early 1st round pick.

 

Bengals TE Tyler Eifert

On the road in what projects to be a track meet with the Falcons.  Injuries in the back 7 have limited their effectiveness. Eifert is coming off a 6 catch performance last week.

 

Falcons K Matt Bryant

Track meet at home vs. the Bengals

 

Browns Defense

5 interceptions in 3 games so far this season. Raiders offense is struggling to score points. Derek Carr has thrown 5 INT already.  With Baker Mayfield under center the defense shouldn’t have to play an overload of snaps.

 

IDP  Titans DT Jurell Casey

Eagles have allowed 10 Sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season.  Casey has 3 sacks combined in his last 2 contests.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Circle Of Trust

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill

Raiders have 2 sacks in 2 games so far. Opponents passer rating of 79.0 isn’t sustainable with a lack of pass rush.  Tannehill is a 2-QB or deep league play.

 

Patriots RB Sony Michel

Lions are giving up an average of 179.5 yards per game on the ground. 5.6 yards-per-carry.

 

49ers WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle

Chiefs have allowed 73 receptions for 876 yards and 6 TD in just 2 games this season. This will be the game of the day on Sunday Ticket.   

 

Vikings K Dan Bailey

Perfect landing spot for Bailey. Should be universally owned as Vikings kicker.

 

Bears Defense

Sam Bradford and his 55.6 Passer Rating is a sitting duck. The Countdown clock is ticking for Josh Rosen’s debut.

 

Eagles LB Jordan Hicks

7 or more total tackles in both games. Colts Andrew Luck is averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. That should lead to Hicks having a lot of tackle opportunities.

10-team IDP Dynasty League Draft Recap

10-team Dynasty Keeper IDP league with the 4th overall pick.  Draft choice goes up one round each season. My Keepers were Chris Hogan (6th), Kyle Rudolph (7th), Will Fuller V (12th), David Johnson (13th), Tevin Coleman (18th), Deion Jones (20th), Carson Wentz (21st), Jamal Adams (24th), Dion Lewis (Franchise Tag), Chris Carson (Franchise Tag). I’m thrilled with my draft to build a competitive team for not only this season, but the future.  Mistakes I made were not keeping Aaron Donald for a 15th and Jarrad Davis for a 24th. I ended up redrafting Davis in the 16th rd. I wanted to have as many available draft choices to target keeper players. Thrilled to get D.J. Moore, Sam Darnold, Mike Gesicki, Courtland Sutton, and Anthony Miller. Lamar Jackson wasn’t as high on my draft board as the other Rookie QB’s, but felt like I got value at that stage. I was the first to take a Rookie QB and grabbed Darnold.  Baker Mayfield went a round later. I passed on Christian McCaffrey to draft Andrew Luck. Most elite QB’s were kept and others were drafted early. Had to go up and get the QB I wanted. Decided to pass on Jimmy Graham to get Trey Burton. I considered trying to trade the pick for a Graham drafter, but was afraid of missing out on Burton. IDP’s are young and disposable. I was filling out offensive keepers while other owners were drafting defensive starters. I play waivers on defense, so why waste mid-round picks.  Feel free to comment on how I did.

Fall Guy Stuntman Association
RB Ezekiel Elliott
WR A.J. Green
QB Andrew Luck
WR Allen Robinson
TE Trey Burton
WR Marquise Goodwin
WR Chris Hogan
TE Kyle Rudolph
WR D.J. Moore
QB Sam Darnold
TE Mike Gesicki
WR Will Fuller V
RB David Johnson
WR Courtland Sutton
RB Isiah Crowell
LB Jarrad Davis
DL Marcus Davenport
RB Tevin Coleman
QB Lamar Jackson
LB Deion Jones
QB Carson Wentz
DL Brandon Graham
WR Anthony Miller
DB Jamal Adams
LB Raekwon McMillan
LB Darius Leonard
DL Leonard Williams
DB Justin Simmons
DB Adrian Amos
QB Joe Flacco
RB Dion Lewis
RB Chris Carson

Week 14 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Reds 2B Jose Peraza

5 steals and .367 OBP in the last 14 days.  Takes on the White Sox at home for 3, then on the road for 3 vs. the Cubs. DFS players may want to take note Peraza, owns a career .450 batting avg. in 20 AB against Sunday starter Jon Lester.  Owned in 48.9% of ESPN and 56% of Yahoo leagues.

 

Cubs OF Jason Heyward

Will never be able to live up to the contract, but is still a very good baseball player. .375 OBP in the last 28 days. Owned in 19.7% of ESPN and 15% of Yahoo leagues. I picked him up in a weekly league in search of outfield production. Home all week with 2 games vs. the Tigers and 3 against the Reds.

 

White Sox OF Avisail Garcia

Owned in 13.8% of ESPN and 24% of Yahoo leagues. 9-game hitting streak since coming off the DL.  The White Sox in rebuild mode have every incentive to build up Garcia’s trade value. Garcia can be a free agent in 2020 which could net the Sox more in trade because he’s not just a rental.  Fantasy players should ride the hot streak with Avisail and be prepared for him to change uniforms. I drafted him cheap and stashed on a DL spot.

 

Rays SP Nathan Eovaldi

2-road starts this week on Monday vs. the Marlins and Sunday against the Mets.  Owned in 11.5% of ESPN and 18% of Yahoo leagues. These are matchup plays as the Marlins as a team are batting .239 and the Mets slump in at .231.  Going against the 2 worst teams in the National League could be fantasy gold.

Hugh Hefner Approach to RB

I take the Hugh Hefner approach to Running Back in fantasy football. I’m always looking for newer younger models.  Running Backs have the shortest career span of any other player. There’s a few impact players out of this draft class and a few late round gems. Training camps are a few months away, but here’s how I view the rookie running backs of 2018.  

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

The number 2 overall pick in the draft should be a first round pick in all fantasy formats. Barkley is a 3-down back in an offense with premier complimentary weapons in the receiving corps. Taking Barkley is a no-brainer.  Could have a Kamara type impact to Giants offense.

Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny

Kind of a surprise with the 27th overall pick in the draft.  Fixing the running game has been one of the top priorities in Seattle this offseason.  Brian Schottenheimer and Mike Solari were brought in to replace Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable as OC and O-line coach.  Solari has a long history of working as an O-line coach around the NFL. Previously worked as Seahawks O-line coach in 2008 and 2009. Moved on to San Francisco to work under Jim Harbaugh.  Is tasked with fixing the squeaky wheel that has been Seattle’s offensive line. San Diego State product slides into a featured role with the Seahawks. C.J. Prosise hasn’t been available. Chris Carson looked like a late round gem last season, then got hurt. Mike Davis didn’t do much with a bell cow workload. J.D. Mikissic is more of a gadget player.  Seattle signed D.J. Fluker in March and added C/G Ethan Pocic with the 58th pick. Fluker’s move from Right tackle to Right Guard and Pocic move to Left Guard are developments I will track in training camp. The reality here is Seattle has 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks along the offensive line. “Rushless in Seattle” shouldn’t see a sequel in 2018.  I’m bullish on Penny stock in all formats.

Patriots RB Sony Michel

Drafted with the 31st pick overall. There were concerns about his medicals as the draft approached. If the medicals are good enough for the Patriots, they’re good enough for me. I anticipate Michel playing the Dion Lewis role in the backfield.  There’s enough production in the Patriots backfield to make Michel, Rex Burkhead, and James White fantasy relevant. Mike Gillislee and Jeremy Hill are short yardage plodders that may have to win a roster spot. I would feel comfortable drafting Michel as a late RB2/RB3.  I believe Michel’s skills will carve out a significant role.

Browns RB Nick Chubb

35th overall pick.  Didn’t play on passing downs at Georgia, but broke tackles and pushed piles ahead.  Chubb will lose work in the passing game to Duke Johnson, while Carlos Hyde was signed early in free agency.  Hyde could provide an obstacle for Chubb getting a lion’s share of the workload. Chubb is a draft for me in the dynasty format. Seasonal drafts I may pass due to concerns over usage.

Bucs RB Ronald Jones

38th overall pick goes to a fast track situation for playing time.  Jones has speed to burn, but work to do adjusting to the NFL game. Speed backs sometimes try to outrun defenders as in college, instead of putting a foot in ground and pushing upfield.  Jones doesn’t seem to set up blocks well and will need to work on pass protection. Peyton Barber, Charles Sims, and Jacquizz Rodgers don’t pose much of a threat. I’ll take Jones as an RB4 in seasonal drafts, and higher in dynasty formats.

 

Lions RB Kerryon Johnson

43rd overall pick. Detroit gave up the 51st and 115th picks in the draft to go up and get this Auburn product.  The Ameer Abdullah era should be over. Legarrette Blount was signed to contribute in short-yardage and goal-line, while Theo Riddick will be involved in the passing attack. Johnson should be able to carve out a significant role right away.  Detroit added C Frank Ragnow with the 20th overall pick and FB Nick Bawden with the 237th overall pick. Johnson will be the Lions first 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush. If drafting today I would take Johnson over Chubb in a seasonal league.

 

Redskins RB Derrius Guice

Surprisingly selected 59th overall by Washington. I was surprised to see a few of the backs listed above drafted before Guice.  Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine won’t take away much of a workload from Guice, but Chris Thompson will take most of the passing game work.  Was Thompson’s increased role last season due to ineffectiveness from Kelley and Perine? Or is Thompson just that good in the passing game? Guice will start off seeing a 2-down role and eventually more. Based off league format I’d feel comfortable drafting Guice as an RB2 in seasonal leagues.

Broncos RB Royce Freeman

71st overall by the Broncos and my favorite player on this list. Freeman isn’t nearly as talented as other backs on the list.  However his skill set meshes with the system Denver runs. Freeman is an RB2 that I will target in each of my drafts this season.  If Devontae Booker were that great, Freeman wouldn’t have been drafted. De’Angelo Henderson and David Williams shouldn’t pose much of threat to Freeman’s workload.  

Colts RB Nyheim Hines

104th overall pick is known for his abilities in the passing game. Should carve out a role in Colts offense right away. Lottery ticket in 16-man leagues (yes I’ve played in those) for his pass catching ability.  

Bengals RB Mark Walton

112th overall pick from the U.  Looked much better at Miami than at the combine.  Walton is a back fantasy owners should know of in case of injury to Mixon or Bernard.  

Falcons RB Ito Smith

126th overall pick should provide depth for Atlanta behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Dynasty players may want to draft Smith if Coleman is allowed to leave in free agency.

Dolphins RB Kalen Ballage  

131st overall pick can be viewed as a handcuff for Kenyan Drake. Ballage has a lot of work to do in terms of pass protection and more importantly ball security. I see Frank Gore as a 3rd down back and mentor for the team at this stage of his hall of fame career.   

Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds

134th overall pick will likely serve as a change of pace back behind David Johnson.  16-man league players may want to take a flier on Edmonds for his PPR value. Seasonal owners should be familiar with Edmonds in case Johnson gets hurt again.

Colts RB Jordan Wilkins

169th overall pick in the draft will look to carve out a role at the expense of Marlon Mack, Robert Turbin and Nyheim Hines.  I kept waiting for Mack to take over the backfield last season and it never happened. Evaluating Mack is tough with how inept the Colts offense was last season.  Mack also played with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Wilkins is an interesting name to track this summer and a possible late round lottery ticket.

Trackable players in case of injury.

176th RB John Kelly Rams

201st RB Boston Scott Saints (Ingram out 4 games with suspension)

204th RB Trenton Scott Jets

226th RB David Williams Broncos

236th RB Bo Scarbrough Cowboys

251st RB Justin Jackson Chargers

Week 7 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Orioles 1B/OF Trey Mancini

Owned in 56% of Yahoo and 64.7% of ESPN leagues. Crushed me in a few matchups this week with 8 Runs 3 Ding-Dongs 6 RBI and a 1.096 OPS.  Faces the Phillies at home for a pair followed by 4 on the road with the Red Sox. Owns a 1.266 OPS in 42 career plate appearances at Fenway. Ride Mancini in all formats while he’s hot.

 

Mariners 3B Kyle Seager

3 HR 8 RBI this past week. I resisted a few trade overtures trying to buy low on Seager. Owned in 81% of Yahoo and 84.3% of ESPN leagues. Starting to play to the back of his baseball card. Has 6 consecutive seasons of 20 or more Ding-Dongs. Has a makeup game on the road with the Twins followed by home matchups with the Rangers and Tigers. Buy low window for Seager more than likely is closed, but a solid player in DFS.

 

Pirates Trevor Williams

2-home starts this week vs. the White Sox and Padres.  Williams has a 1.17 WHIP thru 46 innings this season. Owned in 49% of Yahoo and 50.2% of ESPN leagues.  White Sox are hitting .242 as a team while the Padres check in at .227. Not exactly Murderers’ Row.

Week 4 Fantasy Baseball Circle Of Trust

Indians OF Michael Brantley

.348 avg and .375 OBP to start the season with just 2 K’s.  I’m considering picking up Brantley in a daily cats league for his OBP and miniscule K total.  Owned in 38.9% of ESPN and 43% of Yahoo leagues. Injuries have derailed Brantley’s career, but could this be the year he’s finally healthy?  Games this week with the Orioles, 2 at home with the Cubs, and 4 at home vs. the Mariners.

 

Blue Jays OF Teoscar Hernandez

Flipped with Nori Aoki from the Astros to the Jays for Francisco Liriano at last years trade deadline.  6 R 2 Dongs 7 RBI in the last 7 days. Hernandez should get extended run for the Blue Jays going forward.  Owned in 25.5% of ESPN and 37% of Yahoo leagues. I picked up Teoscar in a daily cats league last week and he helped carry me to victory.  Is a short-term add with upside to be rostered long term. 3 home games each with the Red Sox and Rangers this week.

 

Rays SP Blake Snell

In 3 career starts vs. the Orioles, Snell has a 23/3 K/BB ratio.  Has 6 or more strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Orioles have the lowest team batting average in all of baseball at .215 and have the most strikeouts in the American League with 226.  Snell is owned in 65.9% of ESPN leagues and 81% of Yahoo leagues. The buy low window on this post hype sleeper may be closed after Thursday.

Recapping My 12-Team Auction Draft

12 team Auction Draft with a weekly lock points scoring setup. The scoring in this league is slanted to power hitters. Here’s my draft.  

5 Aaron Judge, NYY OF  K   $2
17 Luis Severino, NYY SP  K   $2
29 Rhys Hoskins, Phi 1B  K   $2
41 Lucas Giolito, CWS SP  K   $2
53 Gleyber Torres, NYY SS  K   $1
74 Nolan Arenado, Col 3B   $41
75 Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B   $25
95 Addison Russell, ChC SS   $7
97 Manny Machado, Bal 3B   $31
104 Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B   $4
107 Jon Lester, ChC SP   $8
141 Starling Marte Pit OF   $5
143 Evan Longoria, SF 3B   $6
158 Didi Gregorius, NYY SS   $7
163 Yadier Molina, StL C   $4
173 Tyler Chatwood, ChC SP   $5
174 Miguel Cabrera, Det 1B   $10
188      Luiz Gohara Atl SP $2
197 Aaron Sanchez, Tor SP   $3
200 Cole Hamels, Tex SP   $3
209 Yoan Moncada, CWS 2B   $5
218 Wilson Ramos, TB C   $2
221 Jeurys Familia, NYM RP   $6
224 Stephen Piscotty, Oak OF   $2
225 Jon Gray, Col SP   $3
233 Greg Holland, FA RP   $5
240 Avisail Garcia, CWS OF   $4
257 Matt Harvey, NYM SP   $1

 

I believe I was able to spend big on a few players I really liked due to my cheaper keepers. Arenado was my player regardless of cost.  Machado can play SS, 3B, MI, CI. Eligibility justified whatever cost. I wanted the cheapest player out of Votto, Rizzo, Goldschmidt, and Freeman.  Power throughout my lineup was the goal. The red flags are I bought some older All-Star players that are on the decline in Molina, Longoria, Hamels, Lester, and Cabrera. I do believe their cost justified the purchase. Bouncebacks that will outperform costs are Ramos, Kipnis, Piscotty, Russell, and Sanchez. Rotation has some solid arms with upside that didn’t break the bank.  I feel strongly that I built a good rotation while keeping costs down. My Bullpen will be a work in progress throughout the season, but we get points for Holds. Spent very little for a few lottery tickets in Gohara, and Harvey. I’ll spend a dollar to find out if the Dark Knight rebounds. I’m happy with the depth and upside of my team.  Let me know what you think feel free to leave comments.

Stashing For Next Year

The end of the fantasy football season shouldn’t mean the end of filling out your roster for keeper league players. Owners should always be looking to improve their situation.  Grabbing lottery tickets for next season is one way to do just that.  

At the end of the 2010 season I decided to flush deadweight on the roster and picked up Saints TE Jimmy Graham. As a rookie Graham caught 31 balls and had 5 TD. I figured in the Saints high powered offense Graham could do some damage in 2011.  I was correct in that estimation to the tune of 99 catches 1310 yards, and 11 TD.  All because I grabbed a lottery ticket before the season ended. The end of the 2012, I grabbed a lottery ticket in Browns TE Jordan Cameron. In 2 seasons he had just 22 catches.  Following reports on the club, Cameron was projected to be a focal point of their scheme in 2013.  I was correct again as Cameron had a career season 80 catches 917 yards and 7 TD.  Those are my 2 biggest success stories in grabbing end of the season lottery tickets. I have missed on more than actually got correct.   Point being it only increases your chances of improving your roster for the next season.  If that lottery ticket busts, so what you didn’t lose anything anyways.  Opportunity is the key in rostering these players thru the offseason.    

Seahawks RB Chris Carson was the best looking running back in Seattle in preseason and the regular season in 2017.  The Seahawks looked to insert Carson as the bell cow, unfortunately it lasted just 4 games due to a season ending ankle injury.  Mike Davis, JD McKissic, Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, and C.J. Prosise didn’t pose a threat to take the job away.  Davis was added off the practice squad later in the season and hasn’t done much to impress.  McKissic is a gadget player. Rawls and Prosise can’t stay healthy. Whatever burst Lacy had looks to have left. If Seattle doesn’t add a big name in the offseason, Carson should have a good shot at being a bell cow in 2018.  

49ers RB Carlos Hyde hasn’t relinquished the lead job to Matt Breida as many fantasy analysts predicted this season.  Hyde is a free agent this offseason and could leave the Bay Area.  Matt Breida and Joe Williams would have a chance at a lead job. Williams was placed on IR with an ankle injury in training camp.  The 49ers offense looks pretty good with Garoppolo at the helm.  Fantasy points from the 49ers top running back will be commodity in 2018.  I’m going to burn roster spots on my dumpster fire of a roster to find out.

Bears General Manager got killed in the media for trading up one spot to draft QB Mitch Trubisky, but drafting TE Adam Shaheen with the 45th pick was also a head scratcher.  Shaheen was a walk-on at Division II Ashland University after playing basketball at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown.  26 Touchdowns later Shaheen decided to forgo his senior season.  Shaheen’s learning curve was apparent during his rookie season.  The Bears are completely devoid of weapons in the receiving corps.  3 of his 12 catches in 2017 have gone for Touchdowns.  I’ll gladly burn a roster spot to see if Shaheen takes a step forward in 2018.    

The Cardinals drafted a receiver in the 3rd round that didn’t make much of an impact in 2017.  Talent, coaching and opportunity could change things in 2018.  Chad Williams has 3 catches for 31 yards in 6 games played at the time of this post.  This Grambling State product hasn’t been able to beat out Jaron Brown, John Brown, or JJ Nelson to make much of an impact.  Larry Fitzgerald’s status for 2018 is yet to be determined. If Fitzgerald does return, Williams is a higher ceiling player than anyone else in the receiving corps. Downgrades on Williams were off the field issues in college and playing in a smaller conference.   Williams has 4.3 speed and was a red zone threat with 21 touchdowns his last 2 seasons.  Bruce Arians is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL. I respect his football IQ and the path he had to take to get a head coaching job.   2017 was almost a red-shirt year for Williams getting acclimated to the NFL.  Spending a season with Fitzgerald also should have assisted with the learning curve.  With another offseason to work on his craft with Arians and possibly Fitzgerald, I believe Williams has a chance to make an impact in 2018.  

By the time I have to select keepers and draft in August of 2018, I’ll know if any of these lottery tickets are worth holding onto.  My recommendation would be to flush out dead weight on your keeper league rosters and grab some lottery tickets.