Highest Overdrafted QB
Falcons QB Matt Ryan
The 2016 MVP was a bust in 2017. 11 games last season with 1 or 0 TD passes last season. How is that possible with Julio Jones?!? WR Calvin Ridley may be able to help alleviate some of the coverage that gets rolled to Julio. Its sounds ludicrous to say a passer with 7 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons is overdrafted. I view him closer as a Top 15 QB to a Top 10.
Running Back Least Likely To Repeat 2017 Performance
Browns RB Duke Johnson
Finished as a top 12 PPR RB in 2017. 74 catches and 7 combined TD. The Browns passing attack will be much improved in 2018 with the switch from DeShon Kizer to Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield. The receiving corps has talent with Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, Antonio Callaway, Corey Coleman, and David Njoku. The rushing attack was addressed in free agency (Carlos Hyde) and the draft (Nick Chubb). I see Duke Johnson being the 3rd down back, but will lose a lot of targets/touches due to upgraded talent all around him.
Biggest Breakout Wide Receiver
Titans WR Corey Davis
I hope to draft Davis in every league this season. Played in 11 games with just 34 receptions as a rookie. Ankle Surgery and a hamstring injury limited Davis in training camp. Then a Hamstring injury in Week 2 cost him 5 full games. Rookie receivers with a full offseason program and training camp can have a tough time adjusting to the NFL. No surprise Davis looked lost after missing so much work in training camp and the early season. I’m buying the 2 TD performance vs. the Patriots in the playoffs.
Tight End Least Likely to Repeat 2017 Performance
Colts TE Jack Doyle
HIghly unlikely to catch 80 balls again. (See Brandon Myers 2012) Those numbers are a direct result of Jacoby Brissett playing QB last season. Andrew Luck will drive the ball down the field and throw outside the numbers much more than Brissett. T.Y. Hilton should be a big bounce back candidate. Eric Ebron I believe will also cut into Doyle’s workload.
Defense that will come out of nowhere to be fantasy relevant
Last season the offense killed the defense with turnovers. The defense metrics are skewed a bit due to having to play with a short field too much. The offense should be improved and won’t kill the defense in 2018. Cleveland has amassed a collection of young talent that could take a step forward this season. Myles Garrett was impressive as a rookie. The linebacking corps with Joe Schobert, Jamie Collins, and Christian Kirksey is solid. Denzel Ward and EJ Gaines should help to improve the secondary. Start of the season looks tough with the opener vs. the Steelers followed by a road matchup with the Saints. Don’t be surprised if they put up good showings in these games.