Tag Archives: Fantasy Baseball

Draft Recap 12-team Daily Categories

 

1. (9) Manny Machado (Bal – 3B,SS)
2. (16) Francisco Lindor (Cle – SS)
3. (33) Freddie Freeman (Atl – 1B)
4. (40) Rougned Odor (Tex – 2B)
5. (57) Christian Yelich (Mia – OF)
6. (64) Wil Myers (SD – 1B,OF)
7. (81) Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
8. (88) Cole Hamels (Tex – SP)
9. (105) Willson Contreras (ChC – C,OF)
10. (112) Danny Duffy (KC – SP,RP)
11. (129) Addison Russell (ChC – SS)
12. (136) Jake Odorizzi (TB – SP)
13. (153) Francisco Rodríguez (Det – RP)
14. (160) David Robertson (CWS – RP)
15. (177) Sean Manaea (Oak – SP)
16. (184) José Peraza (Cin – 2B,SS,OF)
17. (201) Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD – SP)
18. (208) Matt Moore (SF – SP)
19. (225) Sonny Gray (Oak – SP)
20. (232) Héctor Rondón (ChC – RP)
21. (249) Brandon Drury (Ari – 2B,3B,OF)

Draft Recap 12-team Keeper League

FALL GUY STUNTMAN ASOC.
1 Miguel Cabrera, Det 1B  K $39
13 Robinson Cano, Sea 2B  K $35
25 Adam Jones, Bal OF  K $24
37 Roberto Osuna, Tor RP  K $2
49 Michael Fulmer, Det SP  K $2
108 Yoenis Cespedes, NYM OF $13
115 Addison Russell, ChC SS $14
146 Ryon Healy, Oak 3B $2
148 Zack Greinke, Ari SP $9
153 Mike Napoli, Tex 1B $6
173 Jake Odorizzi, TB SP $5
175 Tanner Roark, Wsh SP $8
213 Aledmys Diaz, StL SS $5
223 Evan Gattis, Hou C $5
237 Jose Peraza, Cin SS $6
241 Brandon Drury, Ari 3B $3
242 Hunter Pence, SF OF $2
252 Jason Heyward, ChC OF $1
262 Vince Velasquez, Phi SP $3
263 Koda Glover, Wsh RP $1
270 Greg Holland, Col RP $8
273 Dylan Bundy, Bal SP $1
281 Daniel Hudson, Pit RP $1
289 Jharel Cotton, Oak SP $1
297 Pablo Sandoval, Bos 3B $1
302 Tyler Glasnow, Pit SP $1
307 Fernando Rodney, Ari RP $1

American League Fliers

Orioles Kevin Gausman  Breakout in 2nd half is worth reaching for a bit in upcoming drafts.

Red Sox 3B Pablo Sandoval  Resumed switch hitting, and looks to be in better shape coming into 2017. Kung fu panda will never be confused with Billy Blanks in terms of physical fitness. Young enough that it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he bounces back.

White Sox OF Avisail Garcia  Having a good spring so far, should pencil in as White Sox everyday RF. Post hype sleeper could be a late round lottery ticket.

Indians SP Carlos Carrasco This past season, he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 150/34 K/BB ratio across 146 1/3 innings (25 starts). If he can stay healthy, he offers fantasy upside galore.

Tigers OF Justin Upton  Tied a career high 31 ding dongs despite down year. 5 straight seasons of declining OBP’s with last years bottoming out at .310 OBP. Upton should slide in drafts but not too far. He’s still young enough to adjust.

Astros 3B/1B Yulieski Gurriel  Cuban hitter got his feet wet last season with Astros. Move to 1B full time gives him dual position eligibility. Solid all around hitter.

Royals OF Jorge Soler  25 yr old was never able to put it together in Chicago. A change of scenery and regular playing time could be just what the doctor ordered. Kaufman stadium may run on Soler Power at times this season.

Angels 2B Danny Espinosa  20 plus bombs with 2B/SS eligibility makes Espinosa worth a late pick for those looking for power.

Twins 1B Joe Mauer  Production at this stage doesn’t match the contract as Mauer is one of the most overpaid players in all of baseball. However that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. A .363 OBP can be used by all fantasy owners.

Yankees DH Matt Holliday  With OF/1B eligibility Batman will hold more value due to his multiple position eligibility. The plan is for Holliday to serve as the Yankees DH. The time off the field may help Holliday to stay fresh for a full season.

Athletics SP Jharel Cotton  Pitched well late last season after coming over in trade from the Dodgers. Cotton has the stuff to pitch anywhere, but pitching half of his games in Oakland is an added bonus.

Mariners SP Felix Hernandez  Stock is sliding with fantasy owners as his velocity goes down. King Felix knows how to pitch and while maybe no longer a 1st rd pick at some point will be a value pick.

Rays SP Jake Odorizzi  Peripherals last season were terrific, pitched well enough to certainly win more games. On a good club would have won more than 10 games.

Rangers LF Jurickson Profar  Durability has cut short Profar’s career to date. Multiple position eligibility with the hope that he’s finally health may be worth the risk. Remember Profar is only 24 years old.

Blue Jays SP Francisco Liriano  I believe Liriano bounces back pitching in meaningful games in Toronto. Worth a late pick to fill out your rotation.

National League Fliers

Diamondbacks SP Shelby Miller  I highly doubt Miller repeats his 2016 performance of 3-12. Worth a late flier to fill out rotation.

Braves RP Jim Johnson  Bad Clubs win close games. Johnson signed a 2 yr deal for $10 million dollars should be able to provide cheap saves.

Cubs OF Jason Heyward  Looked like he was swinging a hollow bat last season. Played better in the World Series. Come Back Player of the Year for 2017. You’ll see the production the Cubs expected this year. If Heyward slides too far, go up and pounce.

Reds 2B Jose Peraza  Finally gets to have the 2B job to himself with the Brandon Phillips in Atlanta. Peraza is a late round flier that provides speed.

Rockies RP Greg Holland  Velocity looks to have returned in spring training. Holland was a stud before Tommy John and is young enough to be one again. Could provide cheap saves.

Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig  At 26, its time to shit or get off the pot for Puig. Getting demoted and almost traded is multiple slices of humble pie. If he doesn’t get it now, probably never will.

Marlins OF Marcel Ozuna  23 ding-dongs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Solid choice as an OF 3.

Brewers RP Neftali Feliz  1.14 WHIP last season in 62 games with Pirates. Brew Crew pitchers saved 46 of 69 games last season. Feliz should be a cheap late round flier for those that hold off spending big on Saves.

Mets 3B/SS Jose Reyes  I wouldn’t bet on David Wright leading the club in starts at the hot corner. Reyes with multiple position eligibility will be valuable in daily formats.

Phillies 1B Tommy Joseph  Hit 21 ding dongs last year, possibly hit more in full-time role. Playing everyday should help Joseph provide higher numbers.

Pirates RF Andrew McCutchen  There are a lot of players that would like to have McCutchen’s down season of 2016. Draft slot will slide, but don’t let him fall to far. Never underestimated a pissed off superstar with something to prove.

Padres OF Hunter Renfroe  Should see a lot of at-bats in the heart of the order this season. My pick for Rookie of the Year.

Giants SP Matt Moore  Pitchers park will help Moore keep the ball in the park a bit more. Pitching coach Dave Righetti is one of my favorites. If anyone can get the best out of Moore, it’s Righetti. Making Moore worth the selection.

Cardinals 3B Jedd Gyorko  Hit 30 Bombs last season in a utility role. The OBP was low but Gyorko flashed the power the Padres expected when he was signed to an extension.

Nationals RP Koda Glover Power arm has seen more late inning work this spring. My bet to win the closer’s job in DC.

My Keepers for a 5×5 Categories League

These are my keepers for a 10-team 5×5 daily categories league.  The auction budget is $260 with 23 total roster spots 5 of which are bench spots.  The 7 keepers eat up $122 dollars of budget giving me $ 138 dollars to spend on 16 players. These are the 7 players I’m keeping based off their costs and what I perceive as upside.  WHIP, K, Speed, and Batting Avg are the categories to build around.

($36) for Madison Bumgarner is a little more than I wanted to spend, but I figured his draft cost would be close to that anyways in this league. Bumgarner is the most expensive starting pitcher kept in the league.  Bumgarner has 6 straight seasons of 190 plus K including 251 last season. The career high of 226.2 innings doesn’t both me too much. If I’m going to spend a lot on a pitcher it’s going to be Mad Bum.  ($20) Gerrit Cole is a value in my opinion since I believe he will bounce back this season. I’m willing to gamble that the 2015 Cole with 19 wins, 202 K, and 1.09 WHIP returns.  ($19) Carlos Martinez putting together a Cy Young caliber season is my prediction. At age 25 Martinez should continue to come into his own.  The 1.22 WHIP could drop into the 1.10’s this year.  ($11) Carlos Carrasco had a 9.2 SO/9 and a 1.148 WHIP last season. Carrasco has dominating stuff and pitches for the defending AL Champions. I doubt I could get Carrasco at that price if he was part of the draft.

Hitters I’ve decided to keep are based off value, versatility, and speed.  ($16) JD Martinez would be unrealistic in a redraft scenario at that price. Martinez has been a different player since coming to Detroit. I expect the high OBP and power numbers to continue. ($11) Ian Desmond will provide 1B/OF eligibility while playing in the launching pad that is Colorado. 20 plus steals along with more expected power numbers playing in Colorado is worth the cost. Steals from the 1B position are tough to find.  Only 3 1B eligible players had double digit steals last year. (Goldschmidt 32, Myers 28, Gonzalez 12).  My biggest gamble is ($14) Billy Hamilton. Is the 41-point jump in OBP from 2015 to 2016 a sign of progression? The 2nd half numbers of a .293 avg and .369 OBP have me willing to gamble that Hamilton may have turned the corner.

The keeper costs are too expensive for ($27) Wade Davis, ($25) Craig Kimbrel, ($24) Adam Wainwright, ($20) Zach Britton, ($20) Mark Melancon, (12) Marcus Stroman, and ($9) Tony Watson.  Hitters I’ve deemed too expensive are ($26) Jonathan Lucroy, ($24) Todd Frazier, ($16) Evan Longoria, ($16) Adrian Gonzalez, ($16) Jason Kipnis, ($14) Byron Buxton, ($6) Brad Miller.

Since I can’t attend this draft due to work, I’ve instructed my friend on which players to target.  My rotation features younger power arms with high strikeout rates and low WHIP’s. My strategy this year is to watch my team WHIP like a hawk.  Kyle Hendricks will be a priority add to this roster.  A late auction flier will be Jharel Cotton. The league as a whole didn’t keep too many closers so filling out the bullpen is possible without going nuts on costs.

Pairing Starling Marte with Hamilton would give me 2 elite speed options. Dee Gordon is another elite speed option to pair with Hamilton if Marte’s cost is ridiculous. Odubel Herrera will be a fall back option depending on costs.  Doubling down on elite speed is important. All of the big name power hitters were put back into the player pool due to high keeper costs. Filling out the roster with power hitters and multiple position eligibility is the goal.  Feel free to comment on my keepers or lack there of.

Which Peralta Shows Up in 2017?

Starting Pitcher Wily Peralta has consistently been inconsistent during his time with the Brewers.  A 42-48 career record 4.18 ERA and 1.415 WHIP show a bottom of the rotation pitcher that club’s would look to upgrade. Flashes of brilliance have taken place in Peralta’s time in the Majors.  Peralta was phenomenal in 2014 going 17-11 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. How do you explain 2015 and first half of 2016? I believe what happened to Peralta happens to many young players around professional sports. The league gets more tape on you and makes adjustments accordingly. Then Peralta failed to adjust to what the league was doing to him. The first half of 2016 was atrocious 4-7 6.68 ERA, 1.879 WHIP, 5.7 SO/9 in 13 starts.

Making 10 starts at Triple A Colorado Springs helped Peralta get his groove back. The 6.31 ERA at Colorado Springs isn’t pretty, but that’s a hitter’s park.  Coming back to Milwaukee in August, Peralta seemed to have much better command.  A 3-4 2.92 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 7.4 SO/9 in 10 starts upon his return gives hope for this season.

My eyeball test showed Peralta came back from his demotion with more command and more of a willingness to attack hitters. Early in the season, Peralta didn’t have command and got rocked coming over the plate to get back into the count. The overall numbers in 2016 of 7-11 4.86 ERA, 1.527 WHIP, and 6.6 SO/9 in 23 starts don’t jump out to fantasy owners.

Is it possible Peralta is back to being the pitcher he was in 2014 with a 17-11 record?  Entering his age 28 campaign Peralta could possibly gain sizeable raises in arbitration before reaching free agency in 2020. A rebuilding club like the Brewers can use cost effective pitching. If Peralta takes a step forward this year at the deadline possibly GM David Stearns could flip Peralta for another asset.

I believe its well within the realm of possibility that Peralta’s 2nd half resurgence carries over into 2017.  I plan to spend more time this winter researching 2nd half performances and gambling on those players late in fantasy drafts this season.  Fantasy owners may want to consider a late round flier on Peralta or be prepared to track him as an early waiver wire claim.

Decision Time for Lincecum

Tim Lincecum remains a free agent weeks after his showcase.  The 2-time Cy Young award-winner has struggled with an ERA over 4.00 in each of the last 4 seasons.  Is the hip problem the main culprit for loss of velocity and command?  It’s possible the hip is a major factor, however 1, 643.2 career major league innings on a 170 pound frame could also be a problem.

Lincecum has been linked to the Giants, Angels, and White Sox.  Reports claim “The Freak” prefers a starting job on the West Coast.  The Giants have a rotation with problems at the back end with Matt Cain and Jake Peavy looking their age.  Lincecum could be better than one of both of them at this point.  The fact that a reunion hasn’t happened yet is not a good sign to me.  The Giants not guaranteeing a spot in the starting rotation could be part of the hold up.

The White Sox released John Danks and picked up Miguel Gonzalez.  Carlos Rodon has been inconsistent and Mat Latos has pitched better than expected.  The White Sox lead their division by 5 games and offer the best spot to win right now.  Would Lincecum’s stuff translate in the Windy City?  The Sox launching pad park would be a concern for me.

The Angels on the other hand have just 1 solid starter in Hector Santiago at this point. Injuries have ravaged the Angels with Andrew Heaney and Garrett Richards with UCL injuries, Tyler Skaggs rehabbing a UCL injury, and CJ Wilson’s shoulder acting up.  Nick Tropeano and Matt Shoemaker have been knocked around and Jered Weaver’s continued velocity drop is just plain sad.  The Angels are only 5 games back in the division and could use Lincecum the most.

Lincecum’s decision should be coming sooner rather than later. An incentive laden 1-year prove-it deal is more than likely what would be offered. A GM that offers him a multi-year deal should have his head examined. A minor league assignment is in order before Lincecum can help a Major League club. Lincecum is reaching the S*&^ or get off the pot time.

Fantasy owners have been off the pot for 4 years, but should pay attention to where he signs and how things go. Pitching is so unpredictable it’s not out the realm of possibility that “Big Time Timmy Jim” returns.

Is Felix Still King?

Felix Hernandez had a rough outing in his most recent start vs. the Athletics.  The Mariners ended up winning the game 9-8, but King Felix was knocked around (4 IP 9 H 8 R 4 ER 1 K).  2 errors including one by Hernandez didn’t help matters.  Hernandez in 6 starts is 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with a 29:18 K:BB. Command has been a problem with a 5 and a 6 walk performance already this season.  Finishing off hitters with a wipe away close out pitch has escaped the 6-time All-Star so far as well.  Analysts point to 2 miles per-hour of lost velocity on his fastball and the game plan of pitching backwards by featuring more of his off-speed pitches.  2,299 career innings is a lot of mileage and there’s only so many throws in an arm.  As stuff diminishes so does the margin for error.

Breaking down his performances this year, Hernandez has faced the Rangers, A’s twice, Yankees, Angels, and Royals. Familiarity makes divisional opponents tough.  King Felix owns a career 2.58 ERA vs. the A’s, 3.31 ERA against the Angels, and 3.72 ERA vs. the Rangers.  Oakland is the opponent where King Felix has had his best success 11-3 in Oakland and 22-8 in his career.

As a King Felix fantasy owner, I am not ready to hit the panic button. The results for Hernandez now don’t match the results of his prime.  Last season, Hernandez went 18-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  Not King Felix-like ratios but still solid numbers. The sky is not falling for a pitcher with a 2.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 6 starts.  I would anticipate King Felix turning things around pretty soon.  The 2010 AL Cy Young winner has been a pitcher instead of a thrower for his major league career.  I expect King Felix to make the adjustment and in 30-plus starts the numbers should be there.

Fantasy owners that have King Felix should hold pat unless a solid offer is on the table.
Selling short would be a big mistake as better days should be ahead. I own Hernandez in 1 of my 5 leagues, but will try to buy him for 50 cents on the dollar.

Don’t Sell Too Early on These Players

Baseball players have rough patches throughout a 162-game season.  Often times slumps get magnified at the beginning of the season.  I play in 5 fantasy baseball leagues so a number of these slumping players are on my teams. I plan to hold these players in the short term and not sell them low in trade. Actually I’ve acquired a few via trade.  I’m also looking to see if any of these players go on waivers so I can pick them up.

Cubs SS/2B Addison Russell

Was expected to take step forward this season. Still lacks plate discipline. Put more stock in the.301/.377/.520 to minor league rate than the .244 batting avg. so far.

Royals DH Kendrys Morales

.227 avg. 3R 2 HR 7 RBI. Morales career 162 game avg. 24 HR 91 RBI.

White Sox 1B Jose Abreu

.217 avg. 2 HR 5 RBI. Abreu has 100 plus RBI and 30 bombs in each of his major league seasons. With Todd Frazier protecting Abreu in the lineup, number should be on the way soon.

White Sox 3B Todd Frazier

.154 avg. 2 HR 6 RBI.  Toddfather’s slump in the 2nd half seems to have carried over into this season.  Frazier has 162 game avg. of 28 HR and 83 RBI.

Jays SS Troy Tulowitzki

.140 avg. 3 R 2 HR 6 RBI.  New leg kick could be throwing off Tulo a bit.  Health has always been a problem for Tulowitzki.  If your concerned on his health sell Tulowitzki when his numbers rebound.

Braves 1B Freddie Freeman

.167 avg. 5 R 1 HR 4 RBI.  Freeman’s avg and power should get back to normal, but RBI’s are going to be a problem playing for the Braves.

A’s OF Khris Davis

.162 avg. 1 R 0 HR 1 RBI.  Davis’ power numbers may drop moving from Milwaukee to Oakland. His OBP will come around soon.

Indians SP Corey Kluber

0-3, 6.46 ERA 1.42 WHIP. Put more stock into the 19:5 K:BB thru 19 innings than the ERA.

Mets SP Matt Harvey

0-3 5.71 ERA 1.56 WHIP only 9.  Harvey hasn’t gotten out of the 6th inning in any game this season, but is too talented to sell low.

D-backs SP Zack Greinke

0-2 6.75 ERA 1.56 WHIP 15:5 K:BB. pitched much better in latest start. Flu at end of spring training may help to explain things a bit.

Rays SP Chris Archer

0-3 5.87 ERA 1.96 WHIP 23:8 K:BB. Archer throws too many pitches and struggles to pitch deep into games. Allowed only 2 ER in 2 of his 3 starts.

Pirates SP Gerrit Cole

0-2 4.22 ERA 1.22 WHIP 9:4 K:BB.  Cole hasn’t been sharp in his 2 starts this season. In 30 starts a year a pitcher will have a few stinkers.  Cole just happened to have them in his first 2 starts.

Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright

0-2 8.27 ERA 1.90 WHIP 7:9 K:BB.  Owners should be alarmed with Wainwright’s numbers.  Wainwright is the one pitcher on this list that I have the most concern on coming off the Achilles injury.  Owners should keep Wainwright on the bench if they’re concerned about his numbers.